The Seaon is Upon Us

Months of speculation, prognostication and generaly obsesive behaviour is all coming to a head. The next three months will be fantastic, because the game that I follow above all else will be front and center. Weather or not this year will be as good as 2005 is still to be determined, but this year will be better than last year for sure. I can’t wait for kickoff in 7 hours, of course between now and 7 PM I have a lot of packing to do, and a fair bit of drinking to do. Which brings me to my next point, I am unable to post tommarow, so don’t expect anything untill maybe Sunday, depends on how many games I can watch, and conversley upon when the Cable guy shows at my new apartment on Saturday. Happy Football everyone.

The Mentaly Unable to Perform List

Preseason Edition

 

A weekly breakdown of tactical, executional and syntactical errors that have had a lasting effect on the sport of College Football this week.

Since this the preseason edition, it will highlight mostly gaffs of the public relations variety and call into question the decision making abilities of some noteable figures within the sport.

Jim Delany

There is not a more confused soul in the country right now. He has made so many bad decisions and has stuck his foot in his mouth so many times in the last few months it has become hard impossible not to take at least one pot shot at the man, who I am pretty sure came out of the womb looking as confused and hopeless as he does in this picture. I do not have time to go into all that he has done, so a brief summation must suffice. He responded to the abysmal bowl season of the Big 10 by penning what I am sure was his idea of an scathing indictment of the SEC not putting academics first. He then proceded to start running his mouth, non stop, for three months about the expansion of the Big 10 brand, which curiously enough has nothing to do with academics. He managed to get in a pissing match with comcast over the Big 10 Network when the people at comcast called the BTN second tier or something or other. He then used the BTN, or rather threatened using the BTN as a bargining chip for Big 10 expansion prompting the type of wild speculation and excitment that is usually reserved for a Harry Potter book launch. Of course he latter went into a backpedal that was every bit as impressive as those possesed by Justin King. Jim Delany is the undisputed king of the chumps of the offseason.

Jim Harbaugh

This just in, in case you didn’t know because your head has been under a rock the past few months, Jim Harbaugh likes to talk. I mean really likes to talk, in the sense that I really, really want to have sex with Jessica Alba and even though nothing good can come from contemplating that idea, I do it none the less. Jim started by saying that he had it from an inside source, so you know that it is reliable, that Pete Carroll would be through at USC after this year. Later at the PAC 10 media day he called USC the greatest team in the history of college Football. In between, he called out his alma mater, Michigan, for not producing real student athletes, or something of the sort.

Les Miles

Some would argue that Miles was, in essence defending the honor of the south when he threw down the gaunlet that USC faces an easier road to the national title that LSU does. Despite the fact that every one of LSU’s tough games are at home, and USC plays all theirs on the road, but Les Miles is too busy with his new rival that to bother with the trivial enteties that are encompased in the broadbased stroke of details. Now Les, what were you saying about your new rivals?

That is all for now, back with something tommarow.

Opening Day Is Fast Approaching

The first week of the College Football season is always the hardest to predict, or try to predict. This is for a couple of reasons the most obvious of which is that we don’t know anything about any specific teams. We think we know, we have our assumptions, but assumptions do not always hold true. The reality of the situation is that, while trying to predict who will win what game and by what margin during the season is nothing more than guessing, with some inkling of truth. The process is slightly less refined during the first week of the season, it usually amounts to picking the school that is more talented, has a better track record of success, who had the better recruitng classes for the last 4 years ect. But in games in which you have evenly matched teams, or fairly evenly matched teams it is a total crap shoot. A litteral flip a coin and see what happens situation. So with that in mind we are going to try and predict some of the games that will be relevent on a national scale with reckless abandon and what not.

Kansas State @ Auburn

In all reality this should be a game that tilts decidely in the favor of War Eagle. In terms of talent, in terms of coaching, in terms of pretty much anything that will have an impact on this game. But, that being said, Kansas State has shown that they can beat a top level team, witness the Texas game last year. But this will be the most racus crowd that Josh Freeman will go against. This game really comes down to Freeman. Freeman has periods where he is very good and then very bad. Will he continue his wild fluctuations again this year? I don’t know, and won’t untill later in the season, but I would predict a low period for Freeman in this game. Because of the crowd, because of the way Auburn plays defense, and the pressure of expectations coming to bear upon Freeman. The fact of the matter is that Kansas State is going to be in over their heads in this game, because they are still not on the level of Auburn in terms of talent. And because Ron Prince is no match for that Baby Seal Poacher Tommy Tuberville. I take Auburn.

Tennessee @ California Berkely

It is time for these two schools to defend their honor and the honor of the conferences they represent. And we can thank LSU coach Les “Let er Rip” Miles for throwing down this particular gauntlet that will be a running storyline for College Football all year long. When it comes to the acctual game it is pretty much a crap shoot from where I am sitting. Both squads return solid vetern leaders at QB. Both have decent running backs who have not had the opportunity to be the man. Cal has Justin Forsett who has dwelt in the shadow of Marshawn Lynch for the last couple of years, having some great games but never fully escaping Lynch’s spector. Lamarcus Coker who has been miraculously reinstated just in time for Tennessee’s only real challange in their non conference schedual. This game has all the makings for a true shootout. Cal lost their best player at every level of last years defense and Tennessee has to replace 6 of last years starters. Inexperienced defenses usually lead to high scoring afairs. Thankfully for Cal fan Robert Meachum and Jason Swain are long since departed and will torture the faithful no more. The key in this matchup a teams that are miror images of each other comes on the perimiter where Cal goes three deep with NFL quality talent in the form of DeSean Jackson, Lavelle Hawkins and Robert Jordan. Tennessee will trot out a pair of first year starters at corner that do not have the confidence of many Vols fans. It is foolish to say that one matchup will turn the tide of a game. Advantages are relevent only if they can be exploited, but given the fact that we know nothing about how these teams will acctually perform when the lights come on it is safe to say that the knawing fear of Vols is on the perimiter where they have no proven commidity at either WR spot or in the secondary, excluding the prodigious talents of Jonathan Hefney. It is safe to say that while Cal is equally as green as the Vols on the corners, they have a decided advantage with their fleet of slick receivers. That is why I think Cal wins this game.

Oklahoma State @ Georgia

Expect points, lots of points, maybe even enough points for Matthew Stafford to lift a keg in celebration. This much we think we know. Oklahoma State appears poised to unleash the most balanced offense since USC in 2005. They averaged 200 yards passing and 200 yards rushing last year. OK so comparing them to USC in 2005 is over the top hyperbole. disregaurd and continue. Georgia has to replace their top pass rushers, Charles Johnson and Quinten Moses. But the biggest problem is the suspension of Paul Oliver for the season which means that Bryan Evans is going to have to match up with Adarius Bowman, the best WR in the game, in his fifth start of his carrer. OSU is going to score points on this defense. But the thing is that Stafford and company are going to score points too. Provided that his recievers have somehow evolved full fleged hands to replace the alligator arms that so afflicted that unit, and Staffords production, last season. Either way the home crowd full of barking men in bright red pants will be too much for the Pokes.

Washington @ Syracuse

This is more of a preemtive eulogy for the Washington Huskies season because this is by far the easiest game of their murders row of a non conference schedual, than an acctual reflection of relevence of this game on a national scale. This will give us the to celebrate the hope that Jake Locker brings to the Huskie nation before all hope is wiped away by the painful, but entirely inevitable 1-7 start. If their is such a thing as a slam dunk for Washington this is it. They are facing a team that finnished in the bottom 20 in  5 of 8 major team statisical catigories for offense and defense, and ascended no higher than the mid 70’s in the other three. There is hope for Syracuse in the form of the strong armed Andrew Robinson who just has to better than Perry Patterson. Doesn’t he? In theory yes, but that is the same theory Georgia Tech fans are using regaurding Taylor Bennet being better than Reggie Ball. But the cynic in me states that if either were better than the man that came before them they would have started over said man. Lets just say that I remain skeptical. I also remain skeptical of Greg Robinson who seems to be lost on the job. Does anyone want to tell me how many games he has won against Big East foes. Thats right Dwayne Wade, he has won one game in the Big East. But Washington is not from the Big East, they are from the decidedly deeper PAC 10. Yes they are an also ran, but so is Syracuse. When all else fails take the also ran from the tougher conference. Washington is the pick.

Florida State @ Clemson

It is time to see if all of Bobby Bowdens flashy hires made a difference for this team as they get a stiff test from Clemson in the first week. The outcome of this game is upon the offensive line of Clemson. If they can give James Davis and CJ Spiller, AKA Thunder and Lightning space to opporate this game could get interesting. But if FSU’s DT’s are the disruptive presence they are reputed to beleive than this game could be as ugly as those memorial day clashes between Florida State and Miami were. Clemson has talent on the defensive side of the ball, but it is all, for the most part at least, very green. This a game where the first one to 20 wins. I think that team will be Florida State, because of that defense.   

SEC Shit: Part 2, Predictions

I planned to have another piece about the SEC before doing the predictions, but I am short on time and am going to be so busy this week that hope of being able to post twice to get what I want in is non existant. So the SEC is going to be interesting week in and week out. There are so many storylines going on at once that it may be difficult to keep track of them. There is the Saban situation at Alabama, Florida trying to repeat as national champions, the mellowdrama that has gripped the great state of Arkansas, then you have the Ole’ Ballcoach trying to create a winner at South Carolina where a winner has not been in a long time. There is so much going on that it is easy to miss some things. Something that has been missed is the pottential for the East division to be chaotic. Kentucky looks primed to have one of the best offenses in the conference and appear primed to make yet another run at a bowl game. Vanderbilt looks good enough to finally make a bowl game. Are they good enough to break into the top half of the East division? My inital thought is no, but stranger things have happened. Look at Arkanas last season. Only two schools are precluded from discussion about tangible improvement, in terms of wins and losses and not simply being “better” than last year, and those are the Mississippi schools. So what an interesting year it shall be.

Standings

West

1. LSU
2. Auburn
3. Alabama
4. Arkansas
5. Mississippi
6. Mississippi State

East

1. Tennessee
2. Florida
3. Georgia
4. Vanderbilt
5. South Carolina
6. Kentucky

Conference Game of the Year – Florida vs LSU – October 6

 Last years version of this game was anti climactic. I was expecting a hard fought, close scoring game that would come down to the last couple of minutes. But it wasn’t like that at all Florida dominated the game on both sides of the ball and were simply methodical with the ball. Wearing down the Tigers with the short passing game and the Tebow smash. The biggest part of last years game was the running game, or the lack of running game for LSU. That more than anything is why they did not win last years game. This season they do have a running game, or should have a nice running game. Between Keiland Williams, Jacob Hester and Trindon Holliday getting an occasional Percy Harvin out of the backfield touch on counters and sweeps and what not.  Florida also promises not to be as stout on defense as they were last year. Occupational hazzard of replacing 9 defensive starters. The biggest impact on this game will be the crowd at death valley. Thats why LSU will win this one.

All Conference Team

QB: Andre Woodson, Kentucky

RB: Darren McFadden, Arkansas

RB: Felix Jones, Arkansas

WR: Earl Bennet, Vanderbilt

WR: Kenan Burton, Kentucky

TE: Jacob Tame, Kentucky

C: Jonathan Lugis, Arkansas

G: Herman Johnson, LSU

G: Will Arnold, LSU

T: Andre Smith, Alabama

T: Michael Ohrer, Mississippi

DE: Derrick Harvey, Florida

DE: Tyson Jackson, LSU

DT: Glen Dorsey, LSU

DT: Myron Pryor, Kentucky

LB: Ali Highsmith, LSU

LB: Jasper Brinkley, South Carolina

LB: Jonathan Goff, Vanderbilt

CB: Chevis Jackson, LSU

CB: Simeon Castile, Alabama

S: Jonathan Hefney, Tennessee

S: Derek Pegues, Mississippi

P: Brandon Colquitt, Tennessee

K: Brandon Coutu, Georgia

PR: Rafael Little, Kentucky

KR: Felix Jones, Arkansas

SEC Shit: Part 1, Good Defense or Bad Offense?

Few rational people will challange the notion that the SEC is the best conference in the country, in the preseason at least. That is not because it is a foolish notion to think that any other conference is better. There are two conferences out there who, if things break the right way, could easily be painted in a light as being the best conference in the country. But because the games have not begun to be played all we have is the assumptions that have carried us over since January 8th. The statement that the SEC is the best conference raises a simply but extremly complicated question. Why is the SEC the best conference. The iniatial awnser to that is defense, rock solid, knock your cock off defense. If you look at the raw statistical data it is quasi mindblowing. 5 schools rank in the top 25 in total defense. But a closer look at that statistic would yeild the knowledge that the ACC has 5 teams in that catagory as well. So why is it automaticly assumed that the SEC is the better conference because of their defense when it can be argued, fairly convincingly, that the ACC plays defense at just as high a level as the SEC? The awnser to that question is a hard one to find, but I think that I have the awnser. And it rests in the form of the offenseive skill of the SEC, something that is an afterthought on most occasions.

Anytime you see that a team, or in this case, a conference, that has great defensive stats the question that should be asked is simple. Are the stats a result of playing in a conference with offensive ineptitude, or are the defenses really that good. In simple terms, is it good defense, or bad offense. The question, on the whole, is a diffcult one to awnser. Mostly because there is no tell tale stat that you can single out as proof that the on the field results are a product of either great defense or merely average offense. There are two stats that can be used to judge the effectiveness of a defense. One is total yards given up, the other is points given up. I say these two stats because the combined effect of those two stats can negate anomolies in either stat. Given the fact that the SEC is a BCS conference it would not be accurate to compile the stats against non BCS foes given the clear advantage that SEC schools have over such opponents. So I took a bit of time, cruchned some numbers and this is what I came out with.

SEC Yards Gained and Point Scored Vs. BCS

What follows is the average advantage in games against BCS foes in terms of yards gained, plus or minus, as well as points scored, plus or minus, for each SEC team with the conference average as well.

School, Yards, Points

Alabama, -32, +6.5

Arkansas, -9, -2.75

Auburn, +79, +14.5

Florida, +220.5, +17

Georgia, +16.3, +3.7

Kentucky, -182, -11.5 

LSU, +149, +34.5

Ole’ Miss, -121.5, -25.5

Mississippi State, -100, -28

South Carolina, -15, +5 

Tennessee, +74, +3.4

Vanderbilt, -18.5, -1.5

Southeastern Conference, +23.3, +2.1

 So what does all of that mean? Well it is hard to say because the numbers are not everwhelmingly in the favor of the SEC. After all being plus 23.3 in yards gained and plus 2.1 in coring does not seem all that impresive. That being said, as this is the first time I have don’t this I don’t have a control group. Meaning that I have nothing else to compare it with. So it may indeed turn out to be that the defenses in the SEC are just that good. My inital thought when I started this earlier was that the SEC would simply pound everyone else into submission. I don’t think that is the case from top to bottom. The elite schools certinly proved that. Look at the numbers for Florida and LSU again. LSU looks very impressive, and that was one of the most potent offensive units in the country last season. But those numbers, as good as they are, came against a weak pair of defenses in the form of Arizona and Notre Dame who ranked 49th and 65th respectivly in total defense. What really bloew me away was Florida. In games against BCS opponents Florida State and Ohio State they averaged 220 yards more than their opponents. To put up that many more yards per game against those two defense’s is really impressive. Because these were not lightweight units, we are talking top of the line, elite defenses. Ultimatly I think that you can draw your own conclusions from the data. But I think that this reafirms my thought process that SEC schools that struggle on offense do so because of the level of defense played in that conference. Not the other way around. As for the level at which this is relative for the conference it is hard to tell. The pattern of late in the SEC has been that a bunch of schools play defense at a very high level on an anual basis. I don’t think that will change this season. There will be lots of low scoring games, but when an SEC school faces a school from without its conference, I would bet on the SEC school.