What The Hell Was That

Seriously, if you can start to make sense of what transpired today let me know. I am in such a positive state of shock it is slightly alarming. For all the people out there who are still clamoring for an 8 or 16 team playoffs I still say fuck you. If College Football had a playoff today would have been completely meaningless, sure it would have been fun but the impact would have been marginal. Each upset sounded more loudly than the previous one and it lasted all day. An attempt to get my head around this game will take place tonight, not that it will matter.

MSU vs Wisconsin, Less Fun Than Bar Fight With Ray Maualuga.

There are a lot of interesting games going on this weekend. A lot of interesting games. For starters there is Cal and Oregon which is bound to be one of the most entertaining games on the schedule for this week. In the ACC you have the amazing thunder and lighting duo from Clemson matching up against the team that provided them with their spring board for their national recognition, Georgia Tech. And for the finale, you have the Golden Boy, Jake Locker running headlong into Ray Maualuga, Keith Rivers and company. All of those games will be interesting and fun watch, but there is another game on the docket which promises to be no where near as entertaining or interesting, but will have a bigger impact on the national scene than those other games. Wisconsin and Michigan State.

The strange part is that this is a game between a top ten team, though altogether not deserving of that ranking. The BlogPoll got it right, but just barely. Regardless of Wisconsin’s actual validity being among the elite in the country. They are undefeated, highly ranked hosting and undefeated conference rival. Normally, that game would grab my attention. But there is a problem, a big problem, I watched Michigan and Penn State and I weeped, it was a painful game to watch. Now don’t get me wrong. I love a good old fashioned defensive struggle, but I want it be the result of, you know, good defense, not bad offense. Last weeks “marquee” game in the Big 10 was a showcase for bad offense. It was utterly predictable, no creativity and very little execution. The one redeeming quality was Mike Hart strapping the team on his back again and carrying them to a victory, that was the only positive from that game.

The thing is that Michigan State and Wisconsin will be devoid of even that kind of a moment. Remeber the Eastern Conference Finals from last year, you know, the one where LeBron decided that he just didn’t feel like losing right now? Great moment, bad Basketball. I am a Cavs fan, and truth be told, that series was badly played, by both teams. But it did have a mitigating factor in its favor, the play of LeBron James. It will be remembered for a long time because of LeBron, but everyone will overlook how painful those games were to watch. I was reminded of that while watching Michigan and Penn State. Mike Hart had his very own LeBron moment in the Big House, it was a fantastic sight to see, and it made the game interesting. At this point you are probably wondering what LeBron James and Mike Hart have to do with this game. The thing is that Michigan State and Wisconsin will be just like Penn State and Michigan, just without that LeBron moment that Mike Hart provided last week.

No one on either one of those teams can captivate in the way that Mike Hart did against Penn State when he carried the ball 44 times for 153 yards. Mike Hart is not that much bigger than I am, he is maybe an inch taller and 10 pounds lighter. OK 20 pounds lighter because I am in horrible shape. But I can’t fathom running into the teeth of that defense that many times and then walking out of the stadium. God love PJ Hill, Javon Ringer and Jehuh Culcreck but they don’t have what Hart has, and that will make this game a painful affair to watch. But is not just that, it is the coaches who will make this tough to watch. Because in Bret Bielema and Mark Dantonio you have two coaches who are so inherently risk averse that even Jim Tressell goes Holy fuck, you guys should try throwing it some time. So, if you are planning on watching this game, or if you just stumble across it I wish you luck.

Neither team is particularly inclined to pass the Football except when they have to. They both are proud members of the run-run-pass-punt school of offensive game planning. Neither squad is particularly adept at stopping the pass. Michigan State does have good stats but they have yet to face a competent quarterback so as far as I am concerned the jury is still out. Both look to be solid against the run, though LeSean McCoy did gash MSU for 172 in week 2. So what you have are two squads who sport nice records but have been inconsistent. Neither team is well equipped to test the weaknesses of the other, the secondaries. Neither team is very creative, or explosive on offense so the game will be painful, a recurring theme in the Big 10 this year.

Oregon, Your Validation is Required

Yeah, it’s true, I am scared of the Oregon Ducks. I am scared of being burned by picking them to perform at a high level again. The way I see it, watching the Ducks is like watching one of those re runs of the Fresh Prince of Bel-Air on Nick at Nite. You know what is going to happen, because in all likely hood you have seen that particular episode at least a dozen times. You know the particular midget joke Will is going to use on Carlton, you know what Geoffry is going to be a total dick, you know the particular fat joke Uncle Phil will be subjected to. But you watch regardless, because knowing the outcome doesn’t stop the show from being entertaining. Thats the way I feel when I think about the Oregon Ducks over the last couple of years. They are desperately entertaining to watch, and flame out in a spectacular fashion, but knowing that doesn’t stop me from getting excited watching them.

While the Ducks are by no means the only team in this situation, Clemson is another team who follows an arc that is virtually the same every single year. Michigan State is another team who follows the same basic pattern. A fast start almost every year, followed by a collapse on the back end during pretty much every year under John L Smith. The thing about Oregon, at least from my perspective is that the collapse is triggered by different factors every year, injuries being the obvious example, not settling the QB situation last year is the chief reason for their failures last year when a ten year old could tell you who brings more to the offense. It if you actually look at Oregon under Mike Bellotti there is a pattern to the mayhem. His teams start fast but can’t usually keep the pace and inevitably cough up a losing streak of at least three games at some point in the season. The exceptions, as I noted yesterday, are, or rather seem to be, when the Ducks are a veteran team, I don’t have any imperial data to back up that assumption but I think it is right obviously. But the Fiesta Bowl champs from 2001 were a veteran team, as was the 2005 team. This Oregon team at first appearance looks to fit the bill of the 2001 and 2005 teams more than anything. According to the venerable Phil Steele the Ducks are the 4th most experienced team in the PAC 10.

I should buy into this team, I really should, because they appeal to my Football tastes in so many different ways. Yeah I am primarily a defense first kind of guy, but there are exceptions to the rule, usually made in the presence of a particularly volatile powder keg of offensive ability. They play fast and loose, have a lot of firepower on the edges and all of that is built upon a line of 4 senior starters on the offensive line. Sure there are things to worry about the defense being the obvious entity raising question marks. But, truth be told, the things to like greatly outnumber the negatives with this team.

But, the reputation of this team, at this point in the season is predicated almost entirely upon their thrashing of a Michigan team still reeling from the shot from Appalachian State. But in the wider scheme of things it came against a Michigan Defense which has a noted and storied history of failing at a massive level to contain, or slow down the spread offense. And no, shutting down Northwestern’s attack annually does not count, not when Michigan holds a massive edge in terms of athletic ability. In recent history every time Michigan has come up against a spread offense with a mobile QB and liberal sprinkling of speed option principals and talent that is on par they have failed. Vince Young caused them massive problems, but Troy Smith opened the door and showed the way with his initial Michigan performance, Vince simply walked through it as only Vince Young can. Michigan’s recent history with spread offense’s and mobile quarterbacks would point to a big, big game for Dennis Dixon in the Big House. And this was before Armanti Edwards shredded the young and exuberant Wolverine defense. After that performance it should not have surprised anyone to see Oregon slice and dice that defense at will. But it did, quite a lot in fact.

Oregon is playing well, not doubt about it. But this team is held in such high esteem at this point, not primarily because they are playing well, as you would think, but based upon that Michigan game. But when you actually take a minute to look at it, that is a not a true indication of of the ability of this team. It is a another example of the failure of Michigan to cope with the offense du jour in College Football, the spread, rather than the arrival of the Ducks as a team to be reckoned with on the national scene. The resume of Ducks is predicated largely upon that performance against Michigan a performance that really shouldn’t have surprised everyone like it did. A careful observer of the last few years shouldn’t have been surprised by that performance by Dennis Dixon and company. I think that Oregon has a world of potential, and can be a true player on the national stage, but I think that they are a little overrated at the moment. Because the crowing acheivement on their resume at this moment is that Michigan win. Now, a win is a win at all times, but in light of the past, the thrashing of Michigan doesn’t register quite as emphatically as it does when you initally read that Oregon beat Michigan headline in your local newspaper.

This week will be the truer measuring stick for the Ducks. Cal will provide a better indication of the relative strength of this team. Cal has the ability to go blow for blow with the Ducks, but there is an important thing to keep in mind. The Tennessee game might have been a dud, but it did show some cracks in the Cal amour. Tennessee was able to keep up with the Bears with out even pretending to field a competent running game. They simply passed the ball, a lot. Oregon will be the first truly balanced offense that the Bears will see this year and it will cause them a lot of problems. The important thing is that a win will go a long way to validating this Oregon. But a loss could start that familiar theme all over again.

Withholding Judgement

Every year, around this time there are a few teams that seem to leap out at everyone, grab everyones attention and produce a massive vortex of hype around them. That vortex makes it hard to discern what is real and what is not. That does not mean that teams who are in that category do not have the ability to validate themselves at some point during the year. Usually one big win will do the trick. But at this point, early in the season, when the value of a given vanquished opponent relative to the victories of their peers fluctuates wildly from week to week it is hard to figure out what it real and what is not. Because with every passing Saturday what is real and what is not changes. So with this in mind I give you some teams that I am not completely sold on at this point. Of course all opinions are subject to change in time. Moving on…

Florida Gators

The Gators are still a question mark in my eyes. I am not sure that they truly belong in in the same category as Oklahoma, LSU and Southern Cal at this moment. There are some things about this team that you can’t deny. Tim Tebow has lived up to the hype, carving up secondaries with poise and leaping All Americans in a single bound. Percy Harvin has also looked fantastic. In my mind, he is the best all purpose player in College Football. If Reggie Bush and Ted Ginn had a baby, he would look like Percy Harvin. But, and there is a but, the defense scares the shit out of me, not in a Louisville way, it’s not that scary, but it is my overriding question mark. When I look at a team, I always look at the defense first. There are exceptions to the rule. West Virginia being the obvious one, though they have shown a marked improvement on the defensive side of the ball, and they have the ability to overpower any defense over the course of a game. But, as versatile and scary as the Florida offense will become, I don’t think Florida can run the SEC table with a secondary that worries Florida fans, who like all fans tend to be slightly delusional when it comes to their team, as much as this one does. I am close to buying into this team, really close, but they need to beat chainsaw penised LSU for my doubts to be vanquished, but even then the defensive doubts will be the gorilla in the room.

Oregon Ducks

I really, really like the Ducks this year. Honestly I do. But the Stanford game inflated my inherent doubts of this team in the Dennis Dixon/Brady Leak era. I look at Oregon and I see a whole bunch of things to like. The Jeremiah Johnson, Jonathan Stewart tailback duo, the deep and talented group of wide receivers, the veteran offensive line and Dennis Dixon, who for all his faults, remains, in my eyes at least, a mini Vince Young. And there is the historical precedent for Oregon to perform at an exceptional level when guided by a senior quarterback, remember 2005 and Kellen Clemens? But, and there is always a but, the defense is a massive question mark. Any time your defense gives up an average of 410 yards it is a cause for concern, when you play in the PAC 10 that tends to be magnified. But when you look at who they have played it is more worrisome. Houston, Michigan, Fresno State and the lowly Stanford Cardinal. Houston is a good balanced offense, in the top 25. The others are average in my estimation, and giving up that kind of yardage to average offense’s raises the red flag. Plus the big, resounding win against Michigan is really par for the course when it comes to spread offenses and Wolverine defense. A win over Cal this weekend would erase a lot of doubt about this team, but I am not sure if they can really contain that offense for four quarters.

Kentucky Wildcats

This is a team that is going to have to prove itself every single week. Because there is always going to be doubts about the defense. The same rule that I had about Florida and the Tebow’s applies to Kentucky and the Woodson’s. I don’t think it is possible to win, week in, and week out in the SEC playing all offense all the time. They are susceptible to the run, and not just against Arkansas and the amazing sledgehammer wearing number five who does not bow down to anyone, not even officials. Kent State, yeah, that Kent State put up three bills rushing the Football. In addition to that though is the fact that a good passing attack can shred the secondary, Brian Brohm showed that. If and when Kentucky runs into a balanced offense they are, to put it succinctly fucked. Andre Woodson is a hell of a player and has been so good this season it is scary. But the gnawing question mark still is what happens when Woodson slips up and throws a pick at a critical moment? Like I said, he has been flawless this year and that more than anything is the reason they are in their current position, all due respect to the awesomely named Rafel Little. But that raises the question what happens when he isn’t flawless, when he makes that critical error at an important stage of the game? What happens when UK is engaged in a shootout and Woodson throws a pick setting up the opponent with a short field late in the game? Can that defense stiffen when it matters the most? I don’t think they can but that is my opinion. Just like Florida, the LSU game will hold the answer. UK will be exposed or they will erase some doubts of mine.

Cincinnati Bearcats.

This may be borderline blasphemy, for a fan to question his team at the moment when they have reached their greatest heights, but being a cynic by nature, I always have some questions, always. Now, UC has been fantastic to start the season, no doubt about that. And, as all good teams do it starts, with the defense. No complaints here. They play fast and hard up front, stopping the run about as well as you could ask of a line built on quickness instead of bulk. The secondary has been fantastic, they give up some yards but they are very efficient. And they snag a hell of a lot of balls, thats the most important feature of the defense. But the success of this team has been tied to turnovers. That is not a bad thing, not at all, but what happens when the turnover parade stops? How does the team score when the offense isn’t living off of short fields? UC is on a truly prolific pace in terms of takeaways. Through 4 games UC has 19 takeaways, a tidy average of 4.75 per game. If you average that out over a 12 games season plus a bowl, UC would end up with a staggering 62 takeaways for the year, nearly a dozen more than anything currently in the NCAA online statistics. There has to be an expectation for the pace of turnovers to slow considerably. When that happens the team will have to react. How they will react is anyones guess. I am curious to see how this team will react if and when that happens, and more importantly how Brian Kelly handles a close game, something he hasn’t had to do to this point.

Relative Conference Rankings

With the non conference schedules done and over with for the most part, I figure this would be the best time to judge the relative strength of the conferences. I say relative because there is no sure fire, definitive method to determine where each conference stands relative to the other major conferences. Attempting to rank conferences is an inherently subjective exercise. The results tend to favor the rankers inherent biases. So my opinion holds no more importance than your opinion in the grand scheme of things, we are all biased in our own ways. Naturally I have a lot of confidence in my own knowledge. But I am far from infallible. Moving on to rankings and other such frivolities…

1: SEC
There really is no arguing with this. Through 3 weeks the SEC has a stranglehold on this spot, a stranglehold that I envision them holding on to for the remainder of the season. The conference has more depth from top to bottom than any other. Now there is an undercurrent of disbelief of the actual ability of the SEC. They tend to point to games in which the bottom feeders of the SEC rise up and knock off higher ranked teams. That is not, in my opinion at least, an indication of the conference has whole being overvalued. I think it is an indication of depth. There is not a way to conclusively prove this of course, but if you look at the bottom two teams in the conference, Mississippi State and Ole’ Miss and match them up with the other bottom feeders from BCS conferences and on paper. The Rebels and Bulldogs would perform favorably against teams of similar ilk. It is foolish to judge the strength of a conference based upon how the bottom of the conference looks. But it helps to wrap your head around the depth of the conference. The way I see it is that the SEC has two certifiable juggernauts in Florida and LSU, a sizable drop off to the next group of teams which covers everyone besides the Mississippi’s. In my mind there is not a lot separating those 8 teams. As the season wears on they will start to coalesce in to a pair of definitive groups, but right now they look about equal.

2: PAC 10
My how things have changed in the past two years. In 2005 it was USC and everyone else in this conference. No one was seen fit to challenge the Trojans and there was a dearth of quality teams in the conference. That is not the case anymore. While USC continues to cast its enormous shadow over the conference the other teams in the conference have closed the gap considerably. That does not mean that the improvement has been enough to induce the all out parity that is the PAC 10’s hallmark. USC is still the decided favorite, but they can’t slip up and play sloppy in all but a few games. I really like Cal, but that is the only team that I am actually sold on. I do like Oregon, but I have been burnt by my confidence in them too many times before to rubber stamp them as a legitimate threat to USC. I think that those three schools represent the class of the conference. Oregon State can be a nice team if they can get good play from their QB, but having seen them in person that is a major obstacle for them to clear. Washington surprised all by winning more than the Syracuse game, but the next four games are rough and I don’t see them winning more than one of them. UCLA came up with the what the fuck game of the week by getting throttled by the Utes, but they are still and 8 win team. It is the depth of good teams in the conference that puts the PAC 10 here.

3: Big East
I did not see this one coming. Honestly, and I am a Big East supporter. I thought that the success of last season would be impossible to match, but through 3 weeks the conference looks well on their way to matching, if not improving upon last years result. The conference got a major bump from week 2. Cincinnati throttled Oregon State at home to start the week of right for the Big East. USF then went to the plains and went toe to toe with Auburn coming away with the win. That win has lost some value but beating an SEC team on the road is hard no matter what. The bottom line with the Big East is that it continues to improve across the board. Pretty much everyone is better than last year. Louisivlle probably isn’t and Syracuse definitely isn’t, but the depth of the conference continues to improve.

4: Big 12
This spot is more a sign of the Big Ten’s continued slipping than the Big 12 being decidedly superior. The Big 12 does have one thing going for it, Oklahoma. The Sooners have steamrolled everything in their path and look to be the real deal in the quest for a national championship. The rest of the conference is not quite the real deal. Oklahoma State, everyone and their mothers sleeper pick is 1-2. Texas seems to be trying to give games away to inferior competition. Nebraska got steamrolled by the USC road graders. When you look at it from a holistic vantage point the only thing that the conference has going for it right now is Oklahoma. There are some good things going on in the periphery, Missouri being in the polls, Kansas playing damn good football, Colorado showing signs of improvement, diddo with Kansas State. There are positive things to point to with the Big 12, thats why I put them there.

5: Big 10
Big 10 fans refuse to admit it, but the conference still looks bad, really bad. Thats what can happen when Iowa loses to the worst team in the Big 12, when Minnesota somehow goes 1-2 against the worst two conferences in the country, the MAC and the Sun Belt, and they came this close to losing to Miami of Ohio, squeaking by in overtime. Northwestern stopped Dukes losing streak. There was also that business with Michigan losing to Appalachian State, and Oregon. Wisconsin struggled with Washington State for a half, nearly lost to UNLV and gave up 31 points to the Citadel. 31 points! Right now the best non conference win for the conference is OSU over Washington, a win that will lose a lot of value over the coming weeks. Besides that it is MSU over Pitt, probably the 6th best team in the Big East right now. The Big 10 has majo, major perception issues right no. Issues that can’t begin to address until the bowl season.

6: ACC
With the ACC I am going to try something called the complement sandwich. I am going to try to say something good about the ACC, then I will adress things they need to improve on, then I will close with a complement. lets see, something good, something good…ah. Boston College looks like a real live BCS caliber team right now and Matt Ryan is the truth. Things that need to be worked on. How does Clemson get out gained by Furman? How can Florida State really be that bad? NC State is 0-2 against D1A, Virginia Tech really isn’t a BCS level team. Something good, something good, Oh Duke finally won a ball game and Miami is handling Texas A&M right now.