Superman That Shit

This is going to be a rough week at school so I won’t have time to blog until Thursday at the earliest.

I Think Matt Ryan Is For Real.

Earlier today I asked is Matt Ryan for real. I think that the answer in the midst of the post game revelry is yes. The key stat is this. Through three quarters Boston College had amassed a staggering total of 121 yards. And in the midst of that Matt Ryan looked like shit. Completing about 33 percent of his passes and throwing 2 picks. The last of which came with 6:01 left to go in the game, a play that I was convinced ended the game. I even contemplated committing the ultimate sin in my book, stopping my viewing of Football and flipping to the World Series.

Now that contemplation was based on Matt Ryan looking like that at least once a drive, sometimes more, showing no elusiveness and the foot speed of a sloth. His offensive line was powerless to stop Chris Ellis, I guess because Jags doesn’t really believe in basic concepts, like having backs and tight ends chip on the guy who was clearly destroying your freshman Tackle. But I stayed strong, and watched till the end. And I was rewarded for my decision. BC doubled their total yards in the course of the final two drives and ended up stealing a win with two beautiful touchdowns in 2 minutes. Ryan channeled the ghost of Doug Flutie throwing the old Chris Speilman circle x, circle x a couple of times to keep plays alive and, in the end win the game. Make no mistake about it, the eagles were out played for 55 minutes, and not in a marginal sense, Virginia Tech had complete and utter control, but their anemic offense cost them down the stretch. In their last meaningful drive they needed a first down, maybe two to seal the game. And what did the Hookies do? They went three and out with the tried and true run, run, pass, punt method. With Brandon Ore on the bench for some reason. Matt Ryan is for real, as for his teammates, not so much.

Is Matt Ryan For Real

My initial answer is a resounding yes. He is having a hell of a season to this point. His numbers have been nothing short of phenomenal to this point.

Matt Ryan’s Average Game, Statistically Speaking.

• 27.4 Completions
• 43.4 Attempts
• 306.9 Yards
• 2.4 Touchdowns

Keep that helmet high Matt, because you are straight ballin

Now I don’t intend to put a damper on his stellar statistical performance this season. But, my thoughts a raising some doubts about Ryan, and his team. This is another case where the level of competition has to be brought up in reference to what has been accomplished to this point. Yes he has blown up each and every defense he has faced this season. But the defense’s he has faced this season have been far from good, straining into the world of average

Average of the four major defensive statistics, passing, rushing, total and scoring.

• Wake Forrest – 49.75
• North Carolina State – 70.25
• Georgia Tech – 14.75
• Army – 65.75
• UMass – 28.5 (In the division formerly known as 1AA)
• Bowling Green – 87.5
• Notre Dame – 61.25
• Total Average – 53.96

Now the point of this is not to invalidate what Matt Ryan and his no name group of receivers have so far this season. The point is to provide some perspective to the numbers that are so spectacular. The best defense he has faced this season was Georgia Tech, and I watched the game in spurts and he was spectacular to say the least. 30 of 44, 405 yards and a TD. But it is only one game, and the question to be brought up is if he can sustain that level of performance against the defenses left on the docket, which are far better than what he has faced this season to date. The historical precedent with Matt Ryan is that he can. But the questions will remain for both him, in terms relative to his more ballyhoed peers, in the form of Kentucky boys Brian Brohm and André Woodson, and for this team.

Virginia Tech is going to be the most physical secondary that Ryan and the Eagles will run up against this season. This is going to be the big test of this team, probably the biggest one for the remainder of the year, even though each and every team on the coming schedule is inherently capable pulling an upset. I am really looking forward to the game tonight, because it will be my first extended look at the Eagles since the Georgia Tech game. In that game I was impressed with Ryan and with the two defensive tackles. But I was slightly underwhelmed with the rest of the team. Tonight will go a long way to answering the principal question of the day. If BC wins out are they deserving of a National Championship bid over a 1 loss LSU. This game is the defacto measuring stick for that argument because it is the only common opponent, and BC will be hard pressed to match LSU’s dominating performance. Is Boston College for real? We don’t know, but a convincing win in Blacksberg will go a long way to answering the question.

USC, Now or Never

You probably don’t know it, and this game may very well fly under your radar this weekend, what with the impending Happy Valley White Out, South Florida wading into another trap in the form of UConn, The Worlds Biggest Outdoor Cocktail Party, South Carolina traveling to Tennessee in a crucial SEC East showdown, West Fucking Virginia going on the road to Rutgers, Boston College going to Blacksberg and Kansas facing Texas A&M at Kyle Field in what looks to be the only challenge for the Jayhawks between now and Missouri game. There is a lot going on this weekend, so you might not notice it when USC travels up to Autzen stadium for what could very well be the defining game of the Pete Carroll era. It will be on that field that the fate of this team, and the direction of the program will turn. USC will either show that the Stanford game was a mere one time fluke of a result with a win, or they will continue down the path of Miami with a loss. Which is, as you know, a path of total and complete collapse over time.

It is tough to tell what this team really is. And it has been that way from the beginning of the season. And I, like most saw the holes that needed to be filled from last years team to this years group. But I then looked at the depth chart, and the truly staggering array of potential and just, sort of figured that it would sort itself out and they would continue to roll and be the juggernaut they have been since 2002, because that is what they have done down there at USC. They have sent wave after wave of ultra talented play makers to the next level and simply replaced them with, more, highly skilled play makers who sort of push the bar to a higher level until you arrive where we are today, with the bar set at such astronomical height that it seems unlikely that this team, or any team will live up to it.

Now the fuel that has built the legend of Troy under Pete Carroll has been turnovers, and lots and lots of them. Since 2001 USC has perennially led the nation in takeaways. Averaging 35 per season, or roughly 2.5 per game. That has been the fuel for this team. They have always played high pressure, high intensity defense. Bringing pressure all the time, very predictable in coverages and the timing of blitzes, and all the while seemingly unstoppable. But a key trend that has emerged over the course of the last two seasons is that the well of turnovers over which the sprawling city is built appears to be drying up. They only forced 22 turnovers last season, and have only forced 13 so far this year, well off the breakneck pace that has been one of the signature features of this program under Pete Carroll.

This team has a exponentially large amount of talent, and the extraordinarily high capabilities if they can manage to play up to their potential, a task they have failed to achieve of late. Now, granted, there are some mitigating factors in USC’s favor, but history rarely considers them. USC has a whole boatload of talent, that is what everyone sees on the surface, and they question how a team with such abnormal capabilities and potential can be so throughly normal. But no team can sustain the level of injuries(page 3, middle column) this team has sustained. But history does not investigate mitigating factors, history sees only the black and white of it. Wins and losses, not reasons for them, however valid they may be. That is why this game against Oregon is so important to this program. The difference between winning and losing is simply the difference between being pulled, forcefully, back into the world of averages that dominates this sport, or keeping alive the their conference championship hopes, controlling their own destiny and continuing in the image of the teams that came before them.

UCLA, A Case Study In Insanity

This season could be described as soooo many things, and almost any adjective or catch phrase that you employ in an attempt to make sense of this season will work. You could describe it as, insane, wacky, anarchist, beyond comprehension, ect. Really any crazy thing you can think of can, and will apply here. Fuck, you could even compare this season to a slinky to a stranger you have never met, and he would probably just nod his head in agreement, not even bothering to ask you how the analogy fucking works. He would just nod in agreement, because your analogy is no better, or worse than his. To quote the immortal Lewis Black, this season has been “Stone Cold Fuck Nuts,” SCFN for short. And there is no team that better exemplifies the point than the Bruins of UCLA. This is a team that has run the length and breadth of the performance scale at least twice in a mere 8 games, they might have snuck a third trip in while we weren’t looking.

Going from this:

To this:.

To This:

To this:

To this:

In this, the most schizophrenic season that I have ever seen, or am likely to ever see in my life there is no team that better exemplifies that point than the Bruins. From week to week you never know what is going to happen to them. This is a sampleing of what this team has done so far this year in terms of statistical anomalies relative to the results.

• UCLA was out gained by BYU by nearly 2 to 1. To be exact the Cougars gained 435 yards, UCLA gained 236. Yet UCLA was plus two in the turnover department and won the game by 10 points.
• UCLA was nearly even with Utah in terms of total yards, 373 for the Bruins, 386 for the Utes. They were identical in 3rd down conversions, going 5 for 16. There was a five minute difference in time of possession in favor of the Utes, but that was not the key stat. UCLA got blown out 44 to 6, the key stat being UCLA’s five turnovers.
• In the Oregon State game UCLA was down to the Beavers going into the 4th quarter 12 to 14. UCLA had been tied or losing for 50 minutes and 48 seconds. They then proceeded to blow it open with a 28 point outburst in a mere 7 minutes, against one of the better defensive units in the conference. With the last score coming with 2:12 left to play in the game. That stats reflect the outcome, with an advantage for the Bruins in total yards, 3rd and 4th down conversions, and turnovers. But UCLA only ran 2 more plays than the Beavers and only had a 1 minute 18 second advantage in time of possession. But the final score was 40 to 14. But all that makes it seem like the Bruins enjoyed complete control of the game, which they didn’t but they won the turnover battle, and the game.
• Against Notre Dame, UCLA had decisive advantages in every category, more total yards, better third down conversion rate. Physically they dominated the game like every other Irish opponent, save Purdue, has done this year. But they coughed the ball up 7 times. No matter how good you may be, or how bad the opponent is, no one can sustain 7 turnovers and win. And they didn’t, going down 20 to 6 and providing lowly Notre Dame their sole win of the year.
• Saturday against Cal the game was split evenly down the middle in most statistical categories. Identical 3rd down conversion percentage, identical yards per pass, identical number of penalties, less than a minute difference in time of possession. But UCLA had a higher total yardage total and yard per play total, and this is the key, they had fewer turnovers.

SCFN. Now the point of this exercise is not to attempt to prove anything about UCLA. Because, frankly you don’t know, and can’t know how this team functions just by looking at box scores. The only lead pipe lock inference that can be drawn from this is that when UCLA wins the turnover battle they win the game, what can not be inferred from statistics is how one team can produce such wild fluctuations from week to week, with do discernible pattern relative to their opponents. For example Notre Dame is the worst defense UCLA will likely face this season, hardly capable of the most remedial tasks like high pointing the ball, or shedding blocks, and yet they forced more turnovers out of this Bruin offense than the much more able and polished unit of Oregon State. Why?
The bottom line here is that UCLA is without a doubt the most schizophrenic team in the country this year. And in the midst of the most schizophrenic season ever these Bruins stand out for there insanity, and it is because of that very insanity that UCLA is the microchosim for this, the craziest season ever. You never know from week to week what is going to happen, because the dynamics of each team shift and change every week, sometimes in dramatic fashion, creating and enhancing, or diminishing, the variables within each team that determines the way they play. Every week has been different, and nothing can be held constant. The variables of performance are constantly changing from week to week, that is why trying to decipher to future out of this mess is impossible. Impossible as it may be, damn this shit is fun.