Big 12, It’s Championship Time.

Missouri and Oklahoma. Raise your hand if you thought that this would be the match up in San Antonio back in August. I came close to tabbing this game, very close, but I forgot to trust my logic and, as a result, I picked Nebraska to represent the North. Whoops, can I get a retroactive mulligan? No? Oh well.

This is a desperately interesting game, because these two programs are in places they are not accustomed to being in. For the majority of this Millennium, Oklahoma has been the undisputed Titan of the conference. While far from a perfect overlord, what with those occasional big game meltdowns and National Championship game blowouts, the Sooners have been the most consistent team in the conference. Oklahoma hasn’t worn the underdog cape in a very long time, not since the 2005 Red River Shootout (Fuck Political Correctness) at least, and that did not turn out well for the Sooners. No more mister nice guy indeed.

Missouri on the other hand has been the reciprocal to the Sooners, consistently underwhelming, consistently having good talent, good enough to place them on the brink of the first tier of the Big 12 hierarchy, but consistently underachieving, and as a result staying planted firmly in the second tier. There was the 2004 road trip to Troy (something of a Big 12 graveyard, see Oklahoma State for reference) just before the athletic department was going to launch the Brad Smith for Heisman website. The 51-28 blowout loss to Bowling Green in 2002 (Just take a guess about who coached the Falcons), the 45-35 loss to the Lobo’s of New Mexico. In short the Tigers have been the definition of an underachiever since Gary Pinkel took the job in 2001.

But in this game, the roles are reversed. Oklahoma has been the one who has underachieved, losing a pair of games to teams that they frankly had no business losing to, Colorado and Texas Tech. Because of those performances the Sooners find themselves in a new role, that of the opportunist, with the ability to knock one of their conference foes from the National title. A role that others have a adapted against the Sooners, with truly devastating effects. Missouri meanwhile swaggers into the game fresh off the biggest Boarder War (Fuck political correctness) in history, with a good chance to play in the National Championship game.

When you look back at the first match up, it really was a tight contest. The difference was that Missouri couldn’t cope with being in control. it was something that they couldn’t handle, and in the end their lack of experience in that environment was their ultimate undoing. The lack of experience for Chase Daniel was huge. He turned the ball over three times, one pick on a drive that had just entered Oklahoma territory, one fumble on his own 12 that was subsequently returned for a TD, and another in the 4th quarter intercepted at the Missouri 24 yard line. Those three turnovers were the difference, because Missouri moved the ball effectively all night long, through the air at the very least, but the turnovers were their undoing.

Since that game however, things have changed. Missouri is not the team that it was back on October 13th. They are better, more focused and a terribly efficient team. There has been a marked improvement on the side of the Tigers in the 6 weeks since the last match up. On the flip side of that, when looking at Oklahoma, I don’t see the same type of improvement. They are, by and large, the same team now that they were then. Keep in mind that my observations of the Sooners have been relatively limited by my location in Ohio. But even looking at box scores they just seem, kind of consistent, admitted that is a horrible way to gather information on a team but it is all I have. The secondary of Oklahoma is going to be the defining issue of the game. Was the Texas Tech game a one game aberration of second level defensive breakdowns? The evidence says that it is not, and I have to think in the same vein. The match ups are slanted in the favor of Missouri, and the bottom line is that Oklahoma’s secondary, while populated by Greek gods of statuesque quality, do not defend the pass very well. Against a QB the caliber of Chase Daniel, with the weapons that he has around him, that is a bad thing. Oklahoma needs mistakes from Daniel to win, it will be a shootout to be sure, but in the end I think that the improved Missouri defense will get enough stops to pull it out.

I Say: Missouri 38 – Oklahoma 31

Sunday Musings: November 24th

Missouri

This is a team that is without a question, very very good. But there is lingering doubt in my mind about their ability to fend off a charge from Oklahoma. Are they really and truly a National Title caliber team? I say yes, but they certainly don’t look it on defense, even though there has been a remarkable improvement on that side of the ball. Chase Daniel made an interesting point last night on College Gameday Final, or whatever that bullshit is called. Missouri was very close to winning that match up the first time around, and they were, but they imploded in upon themselves, like Missouri has been oh so prone to do under the Pinkle. I have to look more into this team, this week. If they survive against Oklahoma, the match up with West Virginia looks awfully entertaining from where I am sitting.

West Virginia

Holy Shit. This is becoming an absolute buzz saw of an offense. Given the circumstances of the game, I am not sure that West Fucking Virginia could have had a better performance. Given Connecticut a lot of credit in this game, they certainly played much much harder than they did in their last real game (playing Syracuse after all is a just a glorified scrimmage) against Cincinnati, where they were dominated from the onset and where never in the game, mentally or physically. The Huskies gave it a go, and were decidedly in the game for the first half. But after that, Pat White put the pedal to the metal. What resulted was a firm step on the throat of UConn’s dream season and a simply dominating performance. This is not a team anyone wants a piece of right now, the offense is playing at an otherworldly level and, unlike last season, the defense is playing at a very high level.

USC

Reminded us all what they can do when healthy on Thursday night. The defense remained as good as it has been all season. The difference was the offense, and most notably John David Booty, who looked vintage for a USC QB, which is a hell of a statement given what it mean, and what he has looked like since the Washington game. A defensive stat for thought. USC has given up 400 plus yards once this season, 300 yards twice and has held to opponents to below 190 yards three times this year. Another team that no one is going to want to play in a bowl, though a USC OSU Rose Bowl would be fantastic. Given of course that USC beats ever schizophrenic UCLA Saturday.

LSU

If the people of this state don’t hate overtime yet, they never will. There are couple of things that stood out to me right away. First of all, massive props to Darren McFadden, Payton Hillis and Felix Jones. All three were fantastic in their own ways on Friday. But there is a point that needs to be made about the game of College Football. The most important position on defense is defensive tackle. A good defensive tackle makes a good defense very good, and a great defense elite. A guy like Glenn Dorsey creates a monster out of a good defense. But if he is not good to go, he is dead weight. Not to make excuses, but does anyone think that Arkansas would run that wild with a healthy Dorsey? Of course not, but he was not himself, and that more than anything was why LSU lost. Not because Gary Crowton went to the well one to many times with the slant against corners who were jumping routes all night long. It was because a healthy Jonathan Lugis was able to dominate and injured Glenn Dorsey at the point of attack all night long. In the end, LSU’s luck was going to run out at some point. They had been living on the edge for far too long.

Out Till Friday

Its Thanksgiving, enjoy!

Thanksgiving Football

One game that I am really looking forward to this weekend is not actually taking place on the weekend. It is on thanksgiving night. USC at Arizona State should be a very good game. There is a lot riding on this game for both teams, for Arizona State this is yet another chance to prove that they are for real, after they were handled so firmly by Oregon. USC has as much, or more on the line in this game. As bad as USC’s season has been, from the multiple streak breaking debacle against Stanford to the hard fought loss to Oregon, USC still, has a chance, as incredible as this sounds, to make an unprecedented 6th BCS bowl and a 6th PAC 10 championship is as many seasons. There is a lot on the line for both teams. Thursday will also be my first extended look at either squad in a few weeks, and my first with USC since their offensive line did this to Nebraska on an extended, game wide basis.

However, since that physical beat down of the Pink Shirts the USC offense has regressed, significantly. The running game, which everyone and their mother assumed would become the calling card of this offense after the Nebraska game, has slowly but surely crawled inside it’s protective cocoon. This is due mainly to a somewhat ridiculous string of injuries that has plagued the Trojans in the backfield and on the offensive line, bottoming out in a 38 rush, 95 yard performance against Stanford, yeah that Stanford. The problem for the USC offense has been the play of their QB’s, they have not been that bad in the macro, but they haven’t been the clutch players that we have come to expect from the previous Carroll era QB’s Chillin Matt Leinart and Carson Palmer when the running game is not hitting on all cylinders. The receivers have been very disappointing in my eyes, but it could be that I expected too much from them from the get go, like most people who got wrapped up in the hyperbole like everyone else. In short the offense has been the disappointment for USC. The defense has been stellar and consistent all year long, they came closer than anyone else to shutting down Oregon. In short the defense is for real, the offense is a continual work in progress, with no consistency in the running game from week to week, causing erratic performances from their QB’s because they can’t rely on the running game to provide balance.

Arizona State is a team that I have not seen all that much. I saw a large portion of their second half against Cal, and I did see the Oregon game, but I didn’t come away impressed with the Sun Devils after either game. I am a firm believer in the power of adversity. Routinely being in tight games, occasionally trailing at the half, going down to the wire in a couple of games are all good things for teams. But routinely being outplayed in the first half, or routinely struggling with inferior teams is always a cause for concern. Thats the main reason I thought very little of Wisconsin this year. It is also the reason why I think very little of Arizona State. Oregon State, Washington State, Washington, Cal, Oregon, and consistently schizophrenic UCLA have all put the Sun Devils in holes of varying sizes at the half. Look at those teams you have a very fine mixture of the bad (Washington State, and Washington), the average (Oregon State, and Cal) and the excellent (Oregon with Dennis Dixon) and then theirs UCLA who have a category of their own. Arizona State can not afford a slow start in this game.

This is by far the toughest defense that Arizona State will have gone against this season. I know that they played Colorado earlier this season, and that Colorado has a very good defense in some facets, but USC is just at another level. USC isn’t an elite team right now, but their defense certainly is, the numbers bear that out. This is going to be a knock down drag out defensive struggle, which swings the game decidedly in the favor of USC. I am not so sure that Arizona State can put it together for the requisite 4 quarters that it is going to take to win this game. They can’t play just a half, I just don’t see USC’s defense allowing them back in the game if they only show up for a half.

I say: USC 17 – ASU 10

Sunday Musings: November 17th (On Monday)

One day late, dire apologies to all.

What I Did Not See Coming

Texas Tech over Oklahoma? Are you shitting me. I was at the West Virginia @ Cincinnati Game, so I couldn’t watch this contest, but I continued to chance glances up at the corner of the scoreboard that runs scores from other games whenever I was confident that the Bearcats battlements were not to be stormed by Pat White, Steve Slaton, Darius Reynaud and the panic inducing Noel Devine, but more on that game later. But as I did so I noticed first that Oklahoma was losing, and then that they were losing by a lot. I was utterly perplexed by the simple flashes of the score that I saw. What I kept thinking is how can a team that allowed three 100 yard rushers, one on team, in one game manage to shut down Sam Bradford and his menagerie of fleet footed, skill position firepower? I didn’t know that Sam Bradford was, quite literally, knocked the fuck out. I clearly did not see that one coming, no one in their right mind did, not even Texas Tech fans.

Clemson

Damn you Tommy Bowden, you continually amaze us all with your ability to consistently limbo under expectations, year after year, yet you maintain a firm command of your employment. How is this possible, you odds defying fucker? The most puzzling thing to me in my box score perusal was the complete and utter absence of a running game for Clemson. I know that Clemson boasted all of 1 returning starters from last years dominate offensive line, and that they would struggle to open holes against good defense’s, but god dammit that was pathetic. If figured that the continued decay of the once stout Boston College run defense would lead to yards and points by the boatload. Again, clearly I was wrong.

Michigan

Yeah, I bit the dust and went for the sentimental favorite, trusting on the occasionally overpowering effect that strong emotions can have on such an emotionally charged sport. I did base pretty much the entirety of my prediction upon the health of Chad Henne and Mike Hart. It was disastrously clear after about three minutes that neither was close to healthy, and that Michigan was going to have little to no shot when the offensive line was the proverbial swinging gate. Beanie Wells on the other hand was completely healthy from the start. That, it turned out was really bad for Michigan. What you had in this game was two QB’s utterly incapable of making plays in the slush, two running backs who, when healthy, are built for those types of games. But only Wells was really healthy, and that was the difference in that game.

Georgia

It was more of the same for the Bulldogs, Knoshon Moreno was excellent as ever, and they just wore down the Wildcat defensive line by routinely pounding Moreno and Thomas Brown in to the middle of the marshmallow soft Kentucky interior. Both logged 22 carries and a touchdown. Matthew Stafford on the other hand reverted to the 2006 version for the start of this game throwing a couple of bad balls, and generally displaying shaky decision making. He did recover from his bad first quarter to have a decent game, but it was clear as day that Mark Richt took the fate of the game out of his hands after the first quarter, and that is not a bad thing, it is what I would do with those two in the backfield. Georgia fans have to think that this was a one game aberration for Stafford.

West Virginia

Pat White is the best Football player I have ever seen live. Hands down, no contest. He is that good. The game against Cincinnati was all him, just all him, second game in a row with over 100 yards rushing and passing, against a defense that is far, far better than Louisville’s. That offense is part of the equation, and it accentuates what he does well, namely making sound decisions, but he would be a phenomenal player, no matter who he plays and what offensive system he is. He wouldn’t be nearly as breathtaking in another system, but he would be just as effective. The one thing that was interesting about this game in particular was that WVU was almost completely devoid of the off the to races plays that have become a calling card with this offense. The longest run of the night for WVU was a 17 yard jaunt by the panic inducing Noel Devine. Pat White did hit two passes for over 20 yards, a screen to Slaton for 32, a roll out and impossible throw to Dorrell Jolla for 26, but those were the longest plays of the night. WVU was just methodical with the offense and essentially pounded Cincinnati into submission. Cincinnati was constantly in position to make plays, but White, and to a lesser extent Slaton, would just give the defenders a leg, take it away, and squeeze out another 5 yards out of a dead play time after time. Simply amazing. Ben Mauk was unbelievable as well. Keeping plays alive with his scrambling. He hit the defense with repeatedly with big plays off the scramble drills. Jeremy Maclin and Michale Crabtree are the best Freshman receivers in the country, with no question but Marcus Barnett of the Bearcats is a guy to keep your eyes on. His line Saturday, 10 catches 210 yards 2 TD’s.