Big 12, It’s Championship Time.

Missouri and Oklahoma. Raise your hand if you thought that this would be the match up in San Antonio back in August. I came close to tabbing this game, very close, but I forgot to trust my logic and, as a result, I picked Nebraska to represent the North. Whoops, can I get a retroactive mulligan? No? Oh well.

This is a desperately interesting game, because these two programs are in places they are not accustomed to being in. For the majority of this Millennium, Oklahoma has been the undisputed Titan of the conference. While far from a perfect overlord, what with those occasional big game meltdowns and National Championship game blowouts, the Sooners have been the most consistent team in the conference. Oklahoma hasn’t worn the underdog cape in a very long time, not since the 2005 Red River Shootout (Fuck Political Correctness) at least, and that did not turn out well for the Sooners. No more mister nice guy indeed.

Missouri on the other hand has been the reciprocal to the Sooners, consistently underwhelming, consistently having good talent, good enough to place them on the brink of the first tier of the Big 12 hierarchy, but consistently underachieving, and as a result staying planted firmly in the second tier. There was the 2004 road trip to Troy (something of a Big 12 graveyard, see Oklahoma State for reference) just before the athletic department was going to launch the Brad Smith for Heisman website. The 51-28 blowout loss to Bowling Green in 2002 (Just take a guess about who coached the Falcons), the 45-35 loss to the Lobo’s of New Mexico. In short the Tigers have been the definition of an underachiever since Gary Pinkel took the job in 2001.

But in this game, the roles are reversed. Oklahoma has been the one who has underachieved, losing a pair of games to teams that they frankly had no business losing to, Colorado and Texas Tech. Because of those performances the Sooners find themselves in a new role, that of the opportunist, with the ability to knock one of their conference foes from the National title. A role that others have a adapted against the Sooners, with truly devastating effects. Missouri meanwhile swaggers into the game fresh off the biggest Boarder War (Fuck political correctness) in history, with a good chance to play in the National Championship game.

When you look back at the first match up, it really was a tight contest. The difference was that Missouri couldn’t cope with being in control. it was something that they couldn’t handle, and in the end their lack of experience in that environment was their ultimate undoing. The lack of experience for Chase Daniel was huge. He turned the ball over three times, one pick on a drive that had just entered Oklahoma territory, one fumble on his own 12 that was subsequently returned for a TD, and another in the 4th quarter intercepted at the Missouri 24 yard line. Those three turnovers were the difference, because Missouri moved the ball effectively all night long, through the air at the very least, but the turnovers were their undoing.

Since that game however, things have changed. Missouri is not the team that it was back on October 13th. They are better, more focused and a terribly efficient team. There has been a marked improvement on the side of the Tigers in the 6 weeks since the last match up. On the flip side of that, when looking at Oklahoma, I don’t see the same type of improvement. They are, by and large, the same team now that they were then. Keep in mind that my observations of the Sooners have been relatively limited by my location in Ohio. But even looking at box scores they just seem, kind of consistent, admitted that is a horrible way to gather information on a team but it is all I have. The secondary of Oklahoma is going to be the defining issue of the game. Was the Texas Tech game a one game aberration of second level defensive breakdowns? The evidence says that it is not, and I have to think in the same vein. The match ups are slanted in the favor of Missouri, and the bottom line is that Oklahoma’s secondary, while populated by Greek gods of statuesque quality, do not defend the pass very well. Against a QB the caliber of Chase Daniel, with the weapons that he has around him, that is a bad thing. Oklahoma needs mistakes from Daniel to win, it will be a shootout to be sure, but in the end I think that the improved Missouri defense will get enough stops to pull it out.

I Say: Missouri 38 – Oklahoma 31