A Look Back: The ACC.

For a refresher on what I thought I knew about the ACC coming into the season click here, here and here.

The fact of the matter is that, even though I watch a lot of Football, and I do mean a lot. I don’t see that many ACC games. Part of the problem lies in my location. Being in Ohio means that I am forced to watch Big 11 Football on the ABC, ESPN family of Networks. Being in Cincinnati means that if I am not watching the Big 11 on ABC or ESPN I am watching the Big East. No complaints there. So any observations that come to pass below are inherently limited, so take all this with a grain of salt. If you find fault with my opinion, speak your piece, varying opinions are important in the blog sphere.

The biggest surprise of the year was the sudden emergence of the Virginia Cavilers. Going into the season I was fairly high on the Cav, and I thought that they would turn in an impressive season. And then they lost to Wyoming. At that point all of the good feelings and fuzziness that I had built towards UVA was vanquished in an instant. No matter. Jameel Sewell came up huge for the offense. But the unquestioned star of the team was Chris Long, he of Howie Long’s loins. I had the chance to watch them play twice, against Maryland and Virginia Tech, and Long simply blew me away with his natural ability, but more with his technique which is simply flawless at this level. The man came up with 75 tackles, 19 TFL’s and 14 sacks, from the Defensive End, in a 3-4 scheme. Thats pretty much unheard of in that defense. The rest of the UVA team? Not so impressive on offense, but man is that a good sound defense.

Speaking of defensive linemen. Marvin Austin. Wow is that kid impressive. You look at the stat line for the year, 26 tackles, 6 TFL and 4 sacks and it doesn’t look all that impressive. But it is when you consider that he is a freshman, neigh over 18 years old, stepping into a BCS conference and starting from day one in the most physically demanding position in the game, defensive tackle, and then he had a legitimate impact. This is a kid who is going to be scary good next year, after a year in the gym. Three years down the line he could very well have a Glenn Dorsey like impact on game, the kid is that good.

There will be no further mention of Miami or Florida State in this post. I was high on both of them and figured that they would both turn in good seasons. And I am an idiot for thinking so, moving on.

Cullen Harper is the closest thing Clemson has to a Heisman Trophy contender coming into next season. I am serious he was damn near flawless all year long. He was so good in fact that I heard nary a whisper from the Tiger faithful about local prep hero Willy Korn all season long. Just look at the stat line. James Davis and CJ Spiller were under utilized all season long, both of their numbers took a tremendous drop from last year. Now that is not all on the shoulders of Davis and Spiller, it has been proven that they are tremendous talents, but there is a little more too the story than that. The offensive line was no where near as good as the 2006 unit of Nathan Bennett, Dustin and Roman Fry. Barry Richardson was back this year, and he was very studley, but his counterparts did not measure anywhere near as high as Richardson on the stud scale. As an all too predictable result the running game took a step back in production compared to 2006. But there is something else to consider. Last year the Clemson strategy was really simple run the damn ball and play defense, and it worked really well, and that was the strategy was employed against FSU when the run pass ratio was 57/43. However, as the season wore on, and the capabilities of Harper became apparent the formula changed. The Tigers continued to play defense at a very high level, but the offensive part of the equation changed, and the offense became far more balanced, the end of the year ratio was 52/48.

Way to go Duke, you beat Northwestern and stopped your 1A losing streak in September. Of course you started a new 1A losing streak promptly, a streak that is approaching double digits now.

A final thought. While most of the country is taking the miserable season of the Big 11 and using it to expound upon the perceived weakness and inferiority of the Big 11, and while that is fun, and an incensed Big 11 fan is one of the more entertaining objects of observation. The dismal season of the ACC on the whole has been, by and large, ignored. If there is a greater collection of consistently underachieving programs in the country I’d like to see it. Miami, Florida State and Clemson are million dollar programs, problem is that they all have 10 cent heads. North Carolina State has had talent in the past, boatloads of it, but never had any discipline to mold it. Enter Tom O’Brien who was supposed to inject the much needed discipline, the result? 1-11. Not a good initial return on investment. In time the conference will grow into a true Football power. The question is how long will that take?

 

Sunday Musings: November 17th (On Monday)

One day late, dire apologies to all.

What I Did Not See Coming

Texas Tech over Oklahoma? Are you shitting me. I was at the West Virginia @ Cincinnati Game, so I couldn’t watch this contest, but I continued to chance glances up at the corner of the scoreboard that runs scores from other games whenever I was confident that the Bearcats battlements were not to be stormed by Pat White, Steve Slaton, Darius Reynaud and the panic inducing Noel Devine, but more on that game later. But as I did so I noticed first that Oklahoma was losing, and then that they were losing by a lot. I was utterly perplexed by the simple flashes of the score that I saw. What I kept thinking is how can a team that allowed three 100 yard rushers, one on team, in one game manage to shut down Sam Bradford and his menagerie of fleet footed, skill position firepower? I didn’t know that Sam Bradford was, quite literally, knocked the fuck out. I clearly did not see that one coming, no one in their right mind did, not even Texas Tech fans.

Clemson

Damn you Tommy Bowden, you continually amaze us all with your ability to consistently limbo under expectations, year after year, yet you maintain a firm command of your employment. How is this possible, you odds defying fucker? The most puzzling thing to me in my box score perusal was the complete and utter absence of a running game for Clemson. I know that Clemson boasted all of 1 returning starters from last years dominate offensive line, and that they would struggle to open holes against good defense’s, but god dammit that was pathetic. If figured that the continued decay of the once stout Boston College run defense would lead to yards and points by the boatload. Again, clearly I was wrong.

Michigan

Yeah, I bit the dust and went for the sentimental favorite, trusting on the occasionally overpowering effect that strong emotions can have on such an emotionally charged sport. I did base pretty much the entirety of my prediction upon the health of Chad Henne and Mike Hart. It was disastrously clear after about three minutes that neither was close to healthy, and that Michigan was going to have little to no shot when the offensive line was the proverbial swinging gate. Beanie Wells on the other hand was completely healthy from the start. That, it turned out was really bad for Michigan. What you had in this game was two QB’s utterly incapable of making plays in the slush, two running backs who, when healthy, are built for those types of games. But only Wells was really healthy, and that was the difference in that game.

Georgia

It was more of the same for the Bulldogs, Knoshon Moreno was excellent as ever, and they just wore down the Wildcat defensive line by routinely pounding Moreno and Thomas Brown in to the middle of the marshmallow soft Kentucky interior. Both logged 22 carries and a touchdown. Matthew Stafford on the other hand reverted to the 2006 version for the start of this game throwing a couple of bad balls, and generally displaying shaky decision making. He did recover from his bad first quarter to have a decent game, but it was clear as day that Mark Richt took the fate of the game out of his hands after the first quarter, and that is not a bad thing, it is what I would do with those two in the backfield. Georgia fans have to think that this was a one game aberration for Stafford.

West Virginia

Pat White is the best Football player I have ever seen live. Hands down, no contest. He is that good. The game against Cincinnati was all him, just all him, second game in a row with over 100 yards rushing and passing, against a defense that is far, far better than Louisville’s. That offense is part of the equation, and it accentuates what he does well, namely making sound decisions, but he would be a phenomenal player, no matter who he plays and what offensive system he is. He wouldn’t be nearly as breathtaking in another system, but he would be just as effective. The one thing that was interesting about this game in particular was that WVU was almost completely devoid of the off the to races plays that have become a calling card with this offense. The longest run of the night for WVU was a 17 yard jaunt by the panic inducing Noel Devine. Pat White did hit two passes for over 20 yards, a screen to Slaton for 32, a roll out and impossible throw to Dorrell Jolla for 26, but those were the longest plays of the night. WVU was just methodical with the offense and essentially pounded Cincinnati into submission. Cincinnati was constantly in position to make plays, but White, and to a lesser extent Slaton, would just give the defenders a leg, take it away, and squeeze out another 5 yards out of a dead play time after time. Simply amazing. Ben Mauk was unbelievable as well. Keeping plays alive with his scrambling. He hit the defense with repeatedly with big plays off the scramble drills. Jeremy Maclin and Michale Crabtree are the best Freshman receivers in the country, with no question but Marcus Barnett of the Bearcats is a guy to keep your eyes on. His line Saturday, 10 catches 210 yards 2 TD’s.

 

Games of National Relevence, November 17th

Ohio State at Michigan
I said early in the week that Michigan was going to win this game, and I am sticking by that prediction now. Ohio State did show cracks in their run defense last week, and they have shown cracks in their pass defense against Purdue, Minnesota and Wisconsin. The thing that separates last weeks game from the other three, is that Illinois was able pass the ball in addition to being able to run it. Their four touchdowns all came on the iffy arm of the Juice. Against Michigan, OSU is going to be going against a far more competent quarterback, at least in theory, with the added threat of a proven ground game. That statement relies heavily upon the assumed health of Mike Hart and Chad Henne, if Hart is out the offense will struggle, with or without Henne in there. I am betting on Hart playing no matter what, and I am better on him having a good game. I don’t think he is going to rip it up in Biakabutuka like fashion, but matching his performance from last year should be a given. The bottom line for the Buckeyes, don’t put the game in the hands Boeckman, it is not that he can’t win the game for you, because he can, but he can lose it just as easily with his penchant for throwing interceptions in bunches.

I say: Michigan 27 – Ohio State 24

West Virginia at Cincinnati
This is the toughest game left on the schedule for West Virginia. Going on the road, in prime time, facing a team who views this as the biggest game in the history of the program. That scenario did not work out so well last time for West Virginia.

There are a lot of similarities between the defenses of South Florida and Cincinnati. Stellar pair of NFL caliber CB’s, deep and talented defensive lines, and good solid and consistent play from the linebackers. There is a crucial difference though when it comes to the prior history with the Mountaineers. South Florida played them very well in both 2005 and 2006. Cincinnati, not so much (2005 and 2006). Cincinnati should keep this game very close. The great weakness of UC’s defense is the pass defense. The secondary is boom or bust, they make plays in the form of interceptions or they get toasted. They struggle with offenses that push the ball deep with consistency. If there is one thing WVU does not do well on offense it is throwing the ball over the top. Cincinnati should be able to move the ball well with Bionic Ben Mauk, I just don’t think UC scores enough to win.

I say: West Virginia 31 – Cincinnati 24

Kentucky at Georgia
Right now, few teams are playing better than the Georgia Bulldogs. They are doing pretty much everything right. They are playing physical football with the running of Knowshon Moreno, hitting big pass plays with Matthew Stafford and the defense that was such an unknown coming into this season has been phenomenal as of late completely dominating Auburn and limiting the Tebow led Gators to one of their worst performances of the year. Kentucky has gotten back into the top 25 in a very sneaky way, by beating Vanderbilt after losing three of 4 in the stretch of a month. The question is whether or not Kentucky is as good as they were to start the season. I say no, the thing that still sticks in my mind is losing to South Carolina, Mississippi State and Florida, and looking very bad in the process, not the once in a lifetime win over LSU. Kentucky is not good against the run, and will be powerless to stop the Moreno, and UGA will put 40+ on the board again. Andre Woodson will put up yards and points on that secondary, just not enough of them.

I say: Georgia 41 – Kentucky 34

Boston College at Clemson
The image of two teams going on completely divergent paths right now. Clemson is embarking on their typical November trip to save Tommy Bowden’s job, and I must admit that it is going quite swimmingly for them. I really do like this team and the way that they are playing right now. The defense has been phenomenal all year long, who would have thought the defensive line of the Tigers would be almost as well as it did last year without the presence of Gaines Adams? Certainly not me. Clemson is on the up and up, Boston College, on the other hand, is falling from their lofty perch of just three weeks ago, falling hard. Those four minutes of exquisite play against Virginia Tech by Matt Ryan, and his sturdily average group of WR’s have been forgotten. Whipped away by two horrible performances by the defense in general, and the running backs in particular. You know you are in trouble when your defense gives up 450 yards plus in consecutive weeks against throughly average offenses. Clemson on the other hand is not average, far from it they are very balanced and very explosive. Another case where a truly stellar QB won’t be able to overcome his average peers.

I say: Clemson 38 – Boston College 28

Bonus Coverage
Another game to keep an eye on is Iowa State at Kansas. Seriously. Iowa State has been playing much, much better since getting throttled by Texas. They limited Oklahoma to their lowest non Colorado offensive output, and they put the breaks on the Missouri offense better than anyone else has this year, acctually outgaining them. The defense has continued to make plays for them in wins over Colorado and Kansas State. I am not calling for the upset, but it is a game to keep an eye on.

Waiting For The Other Shoe

Raise your hand if you thought, at the start of the season, that Boston College At Clemson would be the game of the year in the ACC. And, in addition to that, that the game would match up the two best quarterbacks in the conference. If you had your hand up you might be a pathological liar like me, maybe. But this is where we are right now, and the tilt in Clemson will decide the fate of the Atlantic division, and probably the conference. If you are looking for a dissection of what has befallen the Eagles of Boston College this is probably not the place to look, as I have become very intrigued by the procession of the Tigers of late, and accordingly that is where most of this post will reside.

There has not been very much talk about these Tigers, in a national sense, primarily because any talk of the ACC has been centered around Boston College until very recently, a two game losing streak to knock you out of the top 25 will have that effect. However, don’t let the lack of hype fool you into thinking this is not a very good Football team, because they are. However, they aren’t what most people, this guy included thought they would be. Most figured that they would be a lightning in a bottle offense with the capability to hit from anywhere on the field, and indeed they are, but largely due to the passing game, and the arm of Cullen Harper. James Davis and CJ Spiller have not lived up to the expectations, but Harper has blown the expectations of him right out of the water. All of the clamoring for Will Procter to get benched last season suddenly makes a lot of sense. Harper has been fantastic all season long, and, he has the opportunity to cement his status as the premier QB in the ACC. Admittedly that does not say a whole lot, but it is something, and his level of play deserves some recognition from someone right?

What is different about this team in my estimation, and what separates them from the Clemson teams of the past few years is their ability to regroup and move on. In the past few years Clemson has been the Michigan State of the ACC. They would start fast, and look great in the process, then there would inevitably be a loss, followed by another, and a season that started with Championship game promise would become end in the same places as the others before it, swimming in a sea of averages. But there has been no let down this year, and I thought that there would be one for sure, especially after that Virginia Tech game. By far one of the flukiest games of the year. Clemson held Virginia Tech to 219 yards, out gained them by nearly 200 yards, but lost because Beamer Ball was in effect. A Interception, Punt and Kickoff all returned for touchdowns, if that doesn’t break you nothing can. But it didn’t, and the Tigers regrouped and persevered. The main reason that they haven’t had the expected and anticipated letdowns is the play of their defense.

The shoe has not yet fallen, and it will not fall this year, simply because that defense has been so damn good all year long. And if there is one truth to life in the ACC is that if you pair a good defense, with a moderately timely offense you win. It is that simple, and for proof of that concept you need look no further than last season, and the Demon Deacons of Wake Forrest who won with that very schema. One difference is that Clemson is a team that has far more talent, is more aggressive up front and generally makes more plays than Wake did last season. But the main difference is that Clemson has a higher capability of production on offense, much higher. Clemson has usually been a boom or bust offense, they would either explode of implode, one or the other, there was rarely and consistency from week to week.  But that has changed this year, the Florida State game was predictably brutal. But since that point in time there has only been one negative blip on the radar, the game at Georgia Tech when the Ramblin Wreck’s stellar defensive line handed the young and green Clemson OLine it’s lunch. Since that point it has been consistent as all get out. Not in terms of who is producing, but the level of production has remained, for all intents and purposes constant. Be it CJ Spiller, James Davis or Cullen Harper, they don’t all produce at the same time, but one of them always comes through. Clemson is looking very much like the class of the ACC, but we all are waiting for the shoe to fall.

I Think Matt Ryan Is For Real.

Earlier today I asked is Matt Ryan for real. I think that the answer in the midst of the post game revelry is yes. The key stat is this. Through three quarters Boston College had amassed a staggering total of 121 yards. And in the midst of that Matt Ryan looked like shit. Completing about 33 percent of his passes and throwing 2 picks. The last of which came with 6:01 left to go in the game, a play that I was convinced ended the game. I even contemplated committing the ultimate sin in my book, stopping my viewing of Football and flipping to the World Series.

Now that contemplation was based on Matt Ryan looking like that at least once a drive, sometimes more, showing no elusiveness and the foot speed of a sloth. His offensive line was powerless to stop Chris Ellis, I guess because Jags doesn’t really believe in basic concepts, like having backs and tight ends chip on the guy who was clearly destroying your freshman Tackle. But I stayed strong, and watched till the end. And I was rewarded for my decision. BC doubled their total yards in the course of the final two drives and ended up stealing a win with two beautiful touchdowns in 2 minutes. Ryan channeled the ghost of Doug Flutie throwing the old Chris Speilman circle x, circle x a couple of times to keep plays alive and, in the end win the game. Make no mistake about it, the eagles were out played for 55 minutes, and not in a marginal sense, Virginia Tech had complete and utter control, but their anemic offense cost them down the stretch. In their last meaningful drive they needed a first down, maybe two to seal the game. And what did the Hookies do? They went three and out with the tried and true run, run, pass, punt method. With Brandon Ore on the bench for some reason. Matt Ryan is for real, as for his teammates, not so much.