One game that I am really looking forward to this weekend is not actually taking place on the weekend. It is on thanksgiving night. USC at Arizona State should be a very good game. There is a lot riding on this game for both teams, for Arizona State this is yet another chance to prove that they are for real, after they were handled so firmly by Oregon. USC has as much, or more on the line in this game. As bad as USC’s season has been, from the multiple streak breaking debacle against Stanford to the hard fought loss to Oregon, USC still, has a chance, as incredible as this sounds, to make an unprecedented 6th BCS bowl and a 6th PAC 10 championship is as many seasons. There is a lot on the line for both teams. Thursday will also be my first extended look at either squad in a few weeks, and my first with USC since their offensive line did this to Nebraska on an extended, game wide basis.
However, since that physical beat down of the Pink Shirts the USC offense has regressed, significantly. The running game, which everyone and their mother assumed would become the calling card of this offense after the Nebraska game, has slowly but surely crawled inside it’s protective cocoon. This is due mainly to a somewhat ridiculous string of injuries that has plagued the Trojans in the backfield and on the offensive line, bottoming out in a 38 rush, 95 yard performance against Stanford, yeah that Stanford. The problem for the USC offense has been the play of their QB’s, they have not been that bad in the macro, but they haven’t been the clutch players that we have come to expect from the previous Carroll era QB’s Chillin Matt Leinart and Carson Palmer when the running game is not hitting on all cylinders. The receivers have been very disappointing in my eyes, but it could be that I expected too much from them from the get go, like most people who got wrapped up in the hyperbole like everyone else. In short the offense has been the disappointment for USC. The defense has been stellar and consistent all year long, they came closer than anyone else to shutting down Oregon. In short the defense is for real, the offense is a continual work in progress, with no consistency in the running game from week to week, causing erratic performances from their QB’s because they can’t rely on the running game to provide balance.
Arizona State is a team that I have not seen all that much. I saw a large portion of their second half against Cal, and I did see the Oregon game, but I didn’t come away impressed with the Sun Devils after either game. I am a firm believer in the power of adversity. Routinely being in tight games, occasionally trailing at the half, going down to the wire in a couple of games are all good things for teams. But routinely being outplayed in the first half, or routinely struggling with inferior teams is always a cause for concern. Thats the main reason I thought very little of Wisconsin this year. It is also the reason why I think very little of Arizona State. Oregon State, Washington State, Washington, Cal, Oregon, and consistently schizophrenic UCLA have all put the Sun Devils in holes of varying sizes at the half. Look at those teams you have a very fine mixture of the bad (Washington State, and Washington), the average (Oregon State, and Cal) and the excellent (Oregon with Dennis Dixon) and then theirs UCLA who have a category of their own. Arizona State can not afford a slow start in this game.
This is by far the toughest defense that Arizona State will have gone against this season. I know that they played Colorado earlier this season, and that Colorado has a very good defense in some facets, but USC is just at another level. USC isn’t an elite team right now, but their defense certainly is, the numbers bear that out. This is going to be a knock down drag out defensive struggle, which swings the game decidedly in the favor of USC. I am not so sure that Arizona State can put it together for the requisite 4 quarters that it is going to take to win this game. They can’t play just a half, I just don’t see USC’s defense allowing them back in the game if they only show up for a half.
I say: USC 17 – ASU 10
