Chaos Reigns. Again. Once And For All.

And, at this point is it really any surprise at all?

Interlude:

This is what is happening in Columbus Ohio (rough approximation) 

And In The What The Hell Department

Like everyone else, I sort of had a feeling that an Oklahoma victory over Missouri was inherently possible, if not probable. That being said, I still picked Missouri to win the game, because I sensed some sort of tangible improvement last week over the team that took the field in Norman. As it turns out I was wrong about that. It is not entirely surprising. What was surprising, if not downright shocking, was Pitt knocking off West Virginia. But more on that later on.

Big 12 Championship

The game in San Antonio was the least interesting game of the “major” games of the day. The game played out, by and large, in much the same way that the first match up did. Oklahoma seized control early on, and they never really relinquished it. That is not to say that Missouri wasn’t in the game because they were, especially in the first half. They traded barbs early and often, the poise and control of Chase Daniel was evident from the onset, but Missouri was never able to completely seize anything more than a partial share of the momentum in the first half.

The second half was a completely different animal. Oklahoma made some adjustments to what Mizzou was trying to do, the Tigers did not do anything in anticipation for the adjustments the Sooners brought to the table. It was as if Pinkle and company, dipped as far into their bag of tricks as they could in the first half just to match OU. When the second half came around and OU showed some fresh looks, Mizzou had nothing to fall back on. Ponder this stat for proof, Mizzou had two second half drives that were not 3 and outs. One resulted in a punt, the other a field goal.

Backyard Brawl

Did not see this one coming, no one did. Honestly, who would, not even Pitt fans I dare say. First thing out the gate. Pat White going down was a problem, a massive, team crippling, upset rendering problem. There can be no doubt about that, but WVU was in serious, serious trouble long before he went down late in the second quarter. The bigger problem, the problem that manifested itself very early in the game was the play of the suddenly porous WVU defensive line. On the first play from scrimmage LeSean “Shady” McCoy busted a 12 yard gain. A harbinger of things to come. Pitt just wanted the game more up front, on both sides of the line. The Pitt defensive line, which has been very disruptive all year long took it to another level tonight. Pitt basically applied to same game plan that Cincinnati used against WVU, but with much better results.  If you watched the Cincinnati game, UC was constantly in position to make plays for loss or no gain, but they weren’t able to make the tackles. What was the most shocking element, and thing that should be particularly galling to WVU fans is the fact that Pitt won despite never being able to attack where the Neers were most vulnerable, in the secondary. Instead they just pounded McCoy into the teeth of the defense again and again with surprisingly good results. The game is tough to define, quantify, or even comprehend, especially given the way Pat Slaton has been able to shred much more talented Panther defenses the past two years. Mystifying on a USC Stanford, and Michigan App State scale. For those keeping track of this sort of thing, Pitt is 3-4 in the Big East, the two wins coming against the two best teams in the conference.

SEC Championship

All of the talk coming into this game has been about Les Miles. Originally he was announced as  hired at Michigan, at roughly 10:30. Two hours later it was announced that he had “agreed in principal” to a contract. With LSU? WTF indeed. Then, approximately one hour later, Les Miles unleashed the second instant classic Press Conference of the year.

While it certainly lacks the duration, and classic comedic effect of the epic Mike Gundy presser, it made up for it with Miles calling Kirk Herbstreit, more or less, a hack. Miles address was his 300, to Mike Gundy’s Troy. All in all, awesome. But there was a game to be played, an SEC championship to be won, and, though he surely did not know it, a statement to be made about the national championship. LSU went out, without Matt Flynn, and with a still hobbled and ineffectual Glenn Dorsey and took care of business in a very efficient, very methodical effort though, still lacking the sadistic streak that has come to be associated with this Tigers this year. though It’s been missing since the Auburn game, which coincides with the health Glenn Dorsey, consider that insinuation made.

ACC Championship

Did you notice that Virginia Tech won the ACC for the second time in four seasons? Did you care? Did you watch? I’ll admit it. I didn’t, I was too consumed with the UCF Tulsa game, and Kevan Smith’s breathtaking performance. So yeah, go Hokies.

USC

This is a team that is finally becoming what we all thought that they would be at the beginning of the season, and this is a team that no one wants to play right now. Not when they are healthy and firing on all cylinders up front and JD Booty is as efficient as he has been the past two games. I am very secretly wishing for a Georgia vs Southern California Rose Bowl, that would be an absolute slug fest.

Peace, I’ll post something when the bowls are announced Sunday afternoon.

Big 12, It’s Championship Time.

Missouri and Oklahoma. Raise your hand if you thought that this would be the match up in San Antonio back in August. I came close to tabbing this game, very close, but I forgot to trust my logic and, as a result, I picked Nebraska to represent the North. Whoops, can I get a retroactive mulligan? No? Oh well.

This is a desperately interesting game, because these two programs are in places they are not accustomed to being in. For the majority of this Millennium, Oklahoma has been the undisputed Titan of the conference. While far from a perfect overlord, what with those occasional big game meltdowns and National Championship game blowouts, the Sooners have been the most consistent team in the conference. Oklahoma hasn’t worn the underdog cape in a very long time, not since the 2005 Red River Shootout (Fuck Political Correctness) at least, and that did not turn out well for the Sooners. No more mister nice guy indeed.

Missouri on the other hand has been the reciprocal to the Sooners, consistently underwhelming, consistently having good talent, good enough to place them on the brink of the first tier of the Big 12 hierarchy, but consistently underachieving, and as a result staying planted firmly in the second tier. There was the 2004 road trip to Troy (something of a Big 12 graveyard, see Oklahoma State for reference) just before the athletic department was going to launch the Brad Smith for Heisman website. The 51-28 blowout loss to Bowling Green in 2002 (Just take a guess about who coached the Falcons), the 45-35 loss to the Lobo’s of New Mexico. In short the Tigers have been the definition of an underachiever since Gary Pinkel took the job in 2001.

But in this game, the roles are reversed. Oklahoma has been the one who has underachieved, losing a pair of games to teams that they frankly had no business losing to, Colorado and Texas Tech. Because of those performances the Sooners find themselves in a new role, that of the opportunist, with the ability to knock one of their conference foes from the National title. A role that others have a adapted against the Sooners, with truly devastating effects. Missouri meanwhile swaggers into the game fresh off the biggest Boarder War (Fuck political correctness) in history, with a good chance to play in the National Championship game.

When you look back at the first match up, it really was a tight contest. The difference was that Missouri couldn’t cope with being in control. it was something that they couldn’t handle, and in the end their lack of experience in that environment was their ultimate undoing. The lack of experience for Chase Daniel was huge. He turned the ball over three times, one pick on a drive that had just entered Oklahoma territory, one fumble on his own 12 that was subsequently returned for a TD, and another in the 4th quarter intercepted at the Missouri 24 yard line. Those three turnovers were the difference, because Missouri moved the ball effectively all night long, through the air at the very least, but the turnovers were their undoing.

Since that game however, things have changed. Missouri is not the team that it was back on October 13th. They are better, more focused and a terribly efficient team. There has been a marked improvement on the side of the Tigers in the 6 weeks since the last match up. On the flip side of that, when looking at Oklahoma, I don’t see the same type of improvement. They are, by and large, the same team now that they were then. Keep in mind that my observations of the Sooners have been relatively limited by my location in Ohio. But even looking at box scores they just seem, kind of consistent, admitted that is a horrible way to gather information on a team but it is all I have. The secondary of Oklahoma is going to be the defining issue of the game. Was the Texas Tech game a one game aberration of second level defensive breakdowns? The evidence says that it is not, and I have to think in the same vein. The match ups are slanted in the favor of Missouri, and the bottom line is that Oklahoma’s secondary, while populated by Greek gods of statuesque quality, do not defend the pass very well. Against a QB the caliber of Chase Daniel, with the weapons that he has around him, that is a bad thing. Oklahoma needs mistakes from Daniel to win, it will be a shootout to be sure, but in the end I think that the improved Missouri defense will get enough stops to pull it out.

I Say: Missouri 38 – Oklahoma 31

Sunday Musings: November 24th

Missouri

This is a team that is without a question, very very good. But there is lingering doubt in my mind about their ability to fend off a charge from Oklahoma. Are they really and truly a National Title caliber team? I say yes, but they certainly don’t look it on defense, even though there has been a remarkable improvement on that side of the ball. Chase Daniel made an interesting point last night on College Gameday Final, or whatever that bullshit is called. Missouri was very close to winning that match up the first time around, and they were, but they imploded in upon themselves, like Missouri has been oh so prone to do under the Pinkle. I have to look more into this team, this week. If they survive against Oklahoma, the match up with West Virginia looks awfully entertaining from where I am sitting.

West Virginia

Holy Shit. This is becoming an absolute buzz saw of an offense. Given the circumstances of the game, I am not sure that West Fucking Virginia could have had a better performance. Given Connecticut a lot of credit in this game, they certainly played much much harder than they did in their last real game (playing Syracuse after all is a just a glorified scrimmage) against Cincinnati, where they were dominated from the onset and where never in the game, mentally or physically. The Huskies gave it a go, and were decidedly in the game for the first half. But after that, Pat White put the pedal to the metal. What resulted was a firm step on the throat of UConn’s dream season and a simply dominating performance. This is not a team anyone wants a piece of right now, the offense is playing at an otherworldly level and, unlike last season, the defense is playing at a very high level.

USC

Reminded us all what they can do when healthy on Thursday night. The defense remained as good as it has been all season. The difference was the offense, and most notably John David Booty, who looked vintage for a USC QB, which is a hell of a statement given what it mean, and what he has looked like since the Washington game. A defensive stat for thought. USC has given up 400 plus yards once this season, 300 yards twice and has held to opponents to below 190 yards three times this year. Another team that no one is going to want to play in a bowl, though a USC OSU Rose Bowl would be fantastic. Given of course that USC beats ever schizophrenic UCLA Saturday.

LSU

If the people of this state don’t hate overtime yet, they never will. There are couple of things that stood out to me right away. First of all, massive props to Darren McFadden, Payton Hillis and Felix Jones. All three were fantastic in their own ways on Friday. But there is a point that needs to be made about the game of College Football. The most important position on defense is defensive tackle. A good defensive tackle makes a good defense very good, and a great defense elite. A guy like Glenn Dorsey creates a monster out of a good defense. But if he is not good to go, he is dead weight. Not to make excuses, but does anyone think that Arkansas would run that wild with a healthy Dorsey? Of course not, but he was not himself, and that more than anything was why LSU lost. Not because Gary Crowton went to the well one to many times with the slant against corners who were jumping routes all night long. It was because a healthy Jonathan Lugis was able to dominate and injured Glenn Dorsey at the point of attack all night long. In the end, LSU’s luck was going to run out at some point. They had been living on the edge for far too long.

Sunday Musings: November 17th (On Monday)

One day late, dire apologies to all.

What I Did Not See Coming

Texas Tech over Oklahoma? Are you shitting me. I was at the West Virginia @ Cincinnati Game, so I couldn’t watch this contest, but I continued to chance glances up at the corner of the scoreboard that runs scores from other games whenever I was confident that the Bearcats battlements were not to be stormed by Pat White, Steve Slaton, Darius Reynaud and the panic inducing Noel Devine, but more on that game later. But as I did so I noticed first that Oklahoma was losing, and then that they were losing by a lot. I was utterly perplexed by the simple flashes of the score that I saw. What I kept thinking is how can a team that allowed three 100 yard rushers, one on team, in one game manage to shut down Sam Bradford and his menagerie of fleet footed, skill position firepower? I didn’t know that Sam Bradford was, quite literally, knocked the fuck out. I clearly did not see that one coming, no one in their right mind did, not even Texas Tech fans.

Clemson

Damn you Tommy Bowden, you continually amaze us all with your ability to consistently limbo under expectations, year after year, yet you maintain a firm command of your employment. How is this possible, you odds defying fucker? The most puzzling thing to me in my box score perusal was the complete and utter absence of a running game for Clemson. I know that Clemson boasted all of 1 returning starters from last years dominate offensive line, and that they would struggle to open holes against good defense’s, but god dammit that was pathetic. If figured that the continued decay of the once stout Boston College run defense would lead to yards and points by the boatload. Again, clearly I was wrong.

Michigan

Yeah, I bit the dust and went for the sentimental favorite, trusting on the occasionally overpowering effect that strong emotions can have on such an emotionally charged sport. I did base pretty much the entirety of my prediction upon the health of Chad Henne and Mike Hart. It was disastrously clear after about three minutes that neither was close to healthy, and that Michigan was going to have little to no shot when the offensive line was the proverbial swinging gate. Beanie Wells on the other hand was completely healthy from the start. That, it turned out was really bad for Michigan. What you had in this game was two QB’s utterly incapable of making plays in the slush, two running backs who, when healthy, are built for those types of games. But only Wells was really healthy, and that was the difference in that game.

Georgia

It was more of the same for the Bulldogs, Knoshon Moreno was excellent as ever, and they just wore down the Wildcat defensive line by routinely pounding Moreno and Thomas Brown in to the middle of the marshmallow soft Kentucky interior. Both logged 22 carries and a touchdown. Matthew Stafford on the other hand reverted to the 2006 version for the start of this game throwing a couple of bad balls, and generally displaying shaky decision making. He did recover from his bad first quarter to have a decent game, but it was clear as day that Mark Richt took the fate of the game out of his hands after the first quarter, and that is not a bad thing, it is what I would do with those two in the backfield. Georgia fans have to think that this was a one game aberration for Stafford.

West Virginia

Pat White is the best Football player I have ever seen live. Hands down, no contest. He is that good. The game against Cincinnati was all him, just all him, second game in a row with over 100 yards rushing and passing, against a defense that is far, far better than Louisville’s. That offense is part of the equation, and it accentuates what he does well, namely making sound decisions, but he would be a phenomenal player, no matter who he plays and what offensive system he is. He wouldn’t be nearly as breathtaking in another system, but he would be just as effective. The one thing that was interesting about this game in particular was that WVU was almost completely devoid of the off the to races plays that have become a calling card with this offense. The longest run of the night for WVU was a 17 yard jaunt by the panic inducing Noel Devine. Pat White did hit two passes for over 20 yards, a screen to Slaton for 32, a roll out and impossible throw to Dorrell Jolla for 26, but those were the longest plays of the night. WVU was just methodical with the offense and essentially pounded Cincinnati into submission. Cincinnati was constantly in position to make plays, but White, and to a lesser extent Slaton, would just give the defenders a leg, take it away, and squeeze out another 5 yards out of a dead play time after time. Simply amazing. Ben Mauk was unbelievable as well. Keeping plays alive with his scrambling. He hit the defense with repeatedly with big plays off the scramble drills. Jeremy Maclin and Michale Crabtree are the best Freshman receivers in the country, with no question but Marcus Barnett of the Bearcats is a guy to keep your eyes on. His line Saturday, 10 catches 210 yards 2 TD’s.

 

Games of National Relevence, November 17th

Ohio State at Michigan
I said early in the week that Michigan was going to win this game, and I am sticking by that prediction now. Ohio State did show cracks in their run defense last week, and they have shown cracks in their pass defense against Purdue, Minnesota and Wisconsin. The thing that separates last weeks game from the other three, is that Illinois was able pass the ball in addition to being able to run it. Their four touchdowns all came on the iffy arm of the Juice. Against Michigan, OSU is going to be going against a far more competent quarterback, at least in theory, with the added threat of a proven ground game. That statement relies heavily upon the assumed health of Mike Hart and Chad Henne, if Hart is out the offense will struggle, with or without Henne in there. I am betting on Hart playing no matter what, and I am better on him having a good game. I don’t think he is going to rip it up in Biakabutuka like fashion, but matching his performance from last year should be a given. The bottom line for the Buckeyes, don’t put the game in the hands Boeckman, it is not that he can’t win the game for you, because he can, but he can lose it just as easily with his penchant for throwing interceptions in bunches.

I say: Michigan 27 – Ohio State 24

West Virginia at Cincinnati
This is the toughest game left on the schedule for West Virginia. Going on the road, in prime time, facing a team who views this as the biggest game in the history of the program. That scenario did not work out so well last time for West Virginia.

There are a lot of similarities between the defenses of South Florida and Cincinnati. Stellar pair of NFL caliber CB’s, deep and talented defensive lines, and good solid and consistent play from the linebackers. There is a crucial difference though when it comes to the prior history with the Mountaineers. South Florida played them very well in both 2005 and 2006. Cincinnati, not so much (2005 and 2006). Cincinnati should keep this game very close. The great weakness of UC’s defense is the pass defense. The secondary is boom or bust, they make plays in the form of interceptions or they get toasted. They struggle with offenses that push the ball deep with consistency. If there is one thing WVU does not do well on offense it is throwing the ball over the top. Cincinnati should be able to move the ball well with Bionic Ben Mauk, I just don’t think UC scores enough to win.

I say: West Virginia 31 – Cincinnati 24

Kentucky at Georgia
Right now, few teams are playing better than the Georgia Bulldogs. They are doing pretty much everything right. They are playing physical football with the running of Knowshon Moreno, hitting big pass plays with Matthew Stafford and the defense that was such an unknown coming into this season has been phenomenal as of late completely dominating Auburn and limiting the Tebow led Gators to one of their worst performances of the year. Kentucky has gotten back into the top 25 in a very sneaky way, by beating Vanderbilt after losing three of 4 in the stretch of a month. The question is whether or not Kentucky is as good as they were to start the season. I say no, the thing that still sticks in my mind is losing to South Carolina, Mississippi State and Florida, and looking very bad in the process, not the once in a lifetime win over LSU. Kentucky is not good against the run, and will be powerless to stop the Moreno, and UGA will put 40+ on the board again. Andre Woodson will put up yards and points on that secondary, just not enough of them.

I say: Georgia 41 – Kentucky 34

Boston College at Clemson
The image of two teams going on completely divergent paths right now. Clemson is embarking on their typical November trip to save Tommy Bowden’s job, and I must admit that it is going quite swimmingly for them. I really do like this team and the way that they are playing right now. The defense has been phenomenal all year long, who would have thought the defensive line of the Tigers would be almost as well as it did last year without the presence of Gaines Adams? Certainly not me. Clemson is on the up and up, Boston College, on the other hand, is falling from their lofty perch of just three weeks ago, falling hard. Those four minutes of exquisite play against Virginia Tech by Matt Ryan, and his sturdily average group of WR’s have been forgotten. Whipped away by two horrible performances by the defense in general, and the running backs in particular. You know you are in trouble when your defense gives up 450 yards plus in consecutive weeks against throughly average offenses. Clemson on the other hand is not average, far from it they are very balanced and very explosive. Another case where a truly stellar QB won’t be able to overcome his average peers.

I say: Clemson 38 – Boston College 28

Bonus Coverage
Another game to keep an eye on is Iowa State at Kansas. Seriously. Iowa State has been playing much, much better since getting throttled by Texas. They limited Oklahoma to their lowest non Colorado offensive output, and they put the breaks on the Missouri offense better than anyone else has this year, acctually outgaining them. The defense has continued to make plays for them in wins over Colorado and Kansas State. I am not calling for the upset, but it is a game to keep an eye on.