Sunday Musings: November 17th (On Monday)

One day late, dire apologies to all.

What I Did Not See Coming

Texas Tech over Oklahoma? Are you shitting me. I was at the West Virginia @ Cincinnati Game, so I couldn’t watch this contest, but I continued to chance glances up at the corner of the scoreboard that runs scores from other games whenever I was confident that the Bearcats battlements were not to be stormed by Pat White, Steve Slaton, Darius Reynaud and the panic inducing Noel Devine, but more on that game later. But as I did so I noticed first that Oklahoma was losing, and then that they were losing by a lot. I was utterly perplexed by the simple flashes of the score that I saw. What I kept thinking is how can a team that allowed three 100 yard rushers, one on team, in one game manage to shut down Sam Bradford and his menagerie of fleet footed, skill position firepower? I didn’t know that Sam Bradford was, quite literally, knocked the fuck out. I clearly did not see that one coming, no one in their right mind did, not even Texas Tech fans.

Clemson

Damn you Tommy Bowden, you continually amaze us all with your ability to consistently limbo under expectations, year after year, yet you maintain a firm command of your employment. How is this possible, you odds defying fucker? The most puzzling thing to me in my box score perusal was the complete and utter absence of a running game for Clemson. I know that Clemson boasted all of 1 returning starters from last years dominate offensive line, and that they would struggle to open holes against good defense’s, but god dammit that was pathetic. If figured that the continued decay of the once stout Boston College run defense would lead to yards and points by the boatload. Again, clearly I was wrong.

Michigan

Yeah, I bit the dust and went for the sentimental favorite, trusting on the occasionally overpowering effect that strong emotions can have on such an emotionally charged sport. I did base pretty much the entirety of my prediction upon the health of Chad Henne and Mike Hart. It was disastrously clear after about three minutes that neither was close to healthy, and that Michigan was going to have little to no shot when the offensive line was the proverbial swinging gate. Beanie Wells on the other hand was completely healthy from the start. That, it turned out was really bad for Michigan. What you had in this game was two QB’s utterly incapable of making plays in the slush, two running backs who, when healthy, are built for those types of games. But only Wells was really healthy, and that was the difference in that game.

Georgia

It was more of the same for the Bulldogs, Knoshon Moreno was excellent as ever, and they just wore down the Wildcat defensive line by routinely pounding Moreno and Thomas Brown in to the middle of the marshmallow soft Kentucky interior. Both logged 22 carries and a touchdown. Matthew Stafford on the other hand reverted to the 2006 version for the start of this game throwing a couple of bad balls, and generally displaying shaky decision making. He did recover from his bad first quarter to have a decent game, but it was clear as day that Mark Richt took the fate of the game out of his hands after the first quarter, and that is not a bad thing, it is what I would do with those two in the backfield. Georgia fans have to think that this was a one game aberration for Stafford.

West Virginia

Pat White is the best Football player I have ever seen live. Hands down, no contest. He is that good. The game against Cincinnati was all him, just all him, second game in a row with over 100 yards rushing and passing, against a defense that is far, far better than Louisville’s. That offense is part of the equation, and it accentuates what he does well, namely making sound decisions, but he would be a phenomenal player, no matter who he plays and what offensive system he is. He wouldn’t be nearly as breathtaking in another system, but he would be just as effective. The one thing that was interesting about this game in particular was that WVU was almost completely devoid of the off the to races plays that have become a calling card with this offense. The longest run of the night for WVU was a 17 yard jaunt by the panic inducing Noel Devine. Pat White did hit two passes for over 20 yards, a screen to Slaton for 32, a roll out and impossible throw to Dorrell Jolla for 26, but those were the longest plays of the night. WVU was just methodical with the offense and essentially pounded Cincinnati into submission. Cincinnati was constantly in position to make plays, but White, and to a lesser extent Slaton, would just give the defenders a leg, take it away, and squeeze out another 5 yards out of a dead play time after time. Simply amazing. Ben Mauk was unbelievable as well. Keeping plays alive with his scrambling. He hit the defense with repeatedly with big plays off the scramble drills. Jeremy Maclin and Michale Crabtree are the best Freshman receivers in the country, with no question but Marcus Barnett of the Bearcats is a guy to keep your eyes on. His line Saturday, 10 catches 210 yards 2 TD’s.

 

Games of National Relevence, November 17th

Ohio State at Michigan
I said early in the week that Michigan was going to win this game, and I am sticking by that prediction now. Ohio State did show cracks in their run defense last week, and they have shown cracks in their pass defense against Purdue, Minnesota and Wisconsin. The thing that separates last weeks game from the other three, is that Illinois was able pass the ball in addition to being able to run it. Their four touchdowns all came on the iffy arm of the Juice. Against Michigan, OSU is going to be going against a far more competent quarterback, at least in theory, with the added threat of a proven ground game. That statement relies heavily upon the assumed health of Mike Hart and Chad Henne, if Hart is out the offense will struggle, with or without Henne in there. I am betting on Hart playing no matter what, and I am better on him having a good game. I don’t think he is going to rip it up in Biakabutuka like fashion, but matching his performance from last year should be a given. The bottom line for the Buckeyes, don’t put the game in the hands Boeckman, it is not that he can’t win the game for you, because he can, but he can lose it just as easily with his penchant for throwing interceptions in bunches.

I say: Michigan 27 – Ohio State 24

West Virginia at Cincinnati
This is the toughest game left on the schedule for West Virginia. Going on the road, in prime time, facing a team who views this as the biggest game in the history of the program. That scenario did not work out so well last time for West Virginia.

There are a lot of similarities between the defenses of South Florida and Cincinnati. Stellar pair of NFL caliber CB’s, deep and talented defensive lines, and good solid and consistent play from the linebackers. There is a crucial difference though when it comes to the prior history with the Mountaineers. South Florida played them very well in both 2005 and 2006. Cincinnati, not so much (2005 and 2006). Cincinnati should keep this game very close. The great weakness of UC’s defense is the pass defense. The secondary is boom or bust, they make plays in the form of interceptions or they get toasted. They struggle with offenses that push the ball deep with consistency. If there is one thing WVU does not do well on offense it is throwing the ball over the top. Cincinnati should be able to move the ball well with Bionic Ben Mauk, I just don’t think UC scores enough to win.

I say: West Virginia 31 – Cincinnati 24

Kentucky at Georgia
Right now, few teams are playing better than the Georgia Bulldogs. They are doing pretty much everything right. They are playing physical football with the running of Knowshon Moreno, hitting big pass plays with Matthew Stafford and the defense that was such an unknown coming into this season has been phenomenal as of late completely dominating Auburn and limiting the Tebow led Gators to one of their worst performances of the year. Kentucky has gotten back into the top 25 in a very sneaky way, by beating Vanderbilt after losing three of 4 in the stretch of a month. The question is whether or not Kentucky is as good as they were to start the season. I say no, the thing that still sticks in my mind is losing to South Carolina, Mississippi State and Florida, and looking very bad in the process, not the once in a lifetime win over LSU. Kentucky is not good against the run, and will be powerless to stop the Moreno, and UGA will put 40+ on the board again. Andre Woodson will put up yards and points on that secondary, just not enough of them.

I say: Georgia 41 – Kentucky 34

Boston College at Clemson
The image of two teams going on completely divergent paths right now. Clemson is embarking on their typical November trip to save Tommy Bowden’s job, and I must admit that it is going quite swimmingly for them. I really do like this team and the way that they are playing right now. The defense has been phenomenal all year long, who would have thought the defensive line of the Tigers would be almost as well as it did last year without the presence of Gaines Adams? Certainly not me. Clemson is on the up and up, Boston College, on the other hand, is falling from their lofty perch of just three weeks ago, falling hard. Those four minutes of exquisite play against Virginia Tech by Matt Ryan, and his sturdily average group of WR’s have been forgotten. Whipped away by two horrible performances by the defense in general, and the running backs in particular. You know you are in trouble when your defense gives up 450 yards plus in consecutive weeks against throughly average offenses. Clemson on the other hand is not average, far from it they are very balanced and very explosive. Another case where a truly stellar QB won’t be able to overcome his average peers.

I say: Clemson 38 – Boston College 28

Bonus Coverage
Another game to keep an eye on is Iowa State at Kansas. Seriously. Iowa State has been playing much, much better since getting throttled by Texas. They limited Oklahoma to their lowest non Colorado offensive output, and they put the breaks on the Missouri offense better than anyone else has this year, acctually outgaining them. The defense has continued to make plays for them in wins over Colorado and Kansas State. I am not calling for the upset, but it is a game to keep an eye on.

Waiting For The Other Shoe

Raise your hand if you thought, at the start of the season, that Boston College At Clemson would be the game of the year in the ACC. And, in addition to that, that the game would match up the two best quarterbacks in the conference. If you had your hand up you might be a pathological liar like me, maybe. But this is where we are right now, and the tilt in Clemson will decide the fate of the Atlantic division, and probably the conference. If you are looking for a dissection of what has befallen the Eagles of Boston College this is probably not the place to look, as I have become very intrigued by the procession of the Tigers of late, and accordingly that is where most of this post will reside.

There has not been very much talk about these Tigers, in a national sense, primarily because any talk of the ACC has been centered around Boston College until very recently, a two game losing streak to knock you out of the top 25 will have that effect. However, don’t let the lack of hype fool you into thinking this is not a very good Football team, because they are. However, they aren’t what most people, this guy included thought they would be. Most figured that they would be a lightning in a bottle offense with the capability to hit from anywhere on the field, and indeed they are, but largely due to the passing game, and the arm of Cullen Harper. James Davis and CJ Spiller have not lived up to the expectations, but Harper has blown the expectations of him right out of the water. All of the clamoring for Will Procter to get benched last season suddenly makes a lot of sense. Harper has been fantastic all season long, and, he has the opportunity to cement his status as the premier QB in the ACC. Admittedly that does not say a whole lot, but it is something, and his level of play deserves some recognition from someone right?

What is different about this team in my estimation, and what separates them from the Clemson teams of the past few years is their ability to regroup and move on. In the past few years Clemson has been the Michigan State of the ACC. They would start fast, and look great in the process, then there would inevitably be a loss, followed by another, and a season that started with Championship game promise would become end in the same places as the others before it, swimming in a sea of averages. But there has been no let down this year, and I thought that there would be one for sure, especially after that Virginia Tech game. By far one of the flukiest games of the year. Clemson held Virginia Tech to 219 yards, out gained them by nearly 200 yards, but lost because Beamer Ball was in effect. A Interception, Punt and Kickoff all returned for touchdowns, if that doesn’t break you nothing can. But it didn’t, and the Tigers regrouped and persevered. The main reason that they haven’t had the expected and anticipated letdowns is the play of their defense.

The shoe has not yet fallen, and it will not fall this year, simply because that defense has been so damn good all year long. And if there is one truth to life in the ACC is that if you pair a good defense, with a moderately timely offense you win. It is that simple, and for proof of that concept you need look no further than last season, and the Demon Deacons of Wake Forrest who won with that very schema. One difference is that Clemson is a team that has far more talent, is more aggressive up front and generally makes more plays than Wake did last season. But the main difference is that Clemson has a higher capability of production on offense, much higher. Clemson has usually been a boom or bust offense, they would either explode of implode, one or the other, there was rarely and consistency from week to week.  But that has changed this year, the Florida State game was predictably brutal. But since that point in time there has only been one negative blip on the radar, the game at Georgia Tech when the Ramblin Wreck’s stellar defensive line handed the young and green Clemson OLine it’s lunch. Since that point it has been consistent as all get out. Not in terms of who is producing, but the level of production has remained, for all intents and purposes constant. Be it CJ Spiller, James Davis or Cullen Harper, they don’t all produce at the same time, but one of them always comes through. Clemson is looking very much like the class of the ACC, but we all are waiting for the shoe to fall.