Sunday Musings: November 17th (On Monday)

One day late, dire apologies to all.

What I Did Not See Coming

Texas Tech over Oklahoma? Are you shitting me. I was at the West Virginia @ Cincinnati Game, so I couldn’t watch this contest, but I continued to chance glances up at the corner of the scoreboard that runs scores from other games whenever I was confident that the Bearcats battlements were not to be stormed by Pat White, Steve Slaton, Darius Reynaud and the panic inducing Noel Devine, but more on that game later. But as I did so I noticed first that Oklahoma was losing, and then that they were losing by a lot. I was utterly perplexed by the simple flashes of the score that I saw. What I kept thinking is how can a team that allowed three 100 yard rushers, one on team, in one game manage to shut down Sam Bradford and his menagerie of fleet footed, skill position firepower? I didn’t know that Sam Bradford was, quite literally, knocked the fuck out. I clearly did not see that one coming, no one in their right mind did, not even Texas Tech fans.

Clemson

Damn you Tommy Bowden, you continually amaze us all with your ability to consistently limbo under expectations, year after year, yet you maintain a firm command of your employment. How is this possible, you odds defying fucker? The most puzzling thing to me in my box score perusal was the complete and utter absence of a running game for Clemson. I know that Clemson boasted all of 1 returning starters from last years dominate offensive line, and that they would struggle to open holes against good defense’s, but god dammit that was pathetic. If figured that the continued decay of the once stout Boston College run defense would lead to yards and points by the boatload. Again, clearly I was wrong.

Michigan

Yeah, I bit the dust and went for the sentimental favorite, trusting on the occasionally overpowering effect that strong emotions can have on such an emotionally charged sport. I did base pretty much the entirety of my prediction upon the health of Chad Henne and Mike Hart. It was disastrously clear after about three minutes that neither was close to healthy, and that Michigan was going to have little to no shot when the offensive line was the proverbial swinging gate. Beanie Wells on the other hand was completely healthy from the start. That, it turned out was really bad for Michigan. What you had in this game was two QB’s utterly incapable of making plays in the slush, two running backs who, when healthy, are built for those types of games. But only Wells was really healthy, and that was the difference in that game.

Georgia

It was more of the same for the Bulldogs, Knoshon Moreno was excellent as ever, and they just wore down the Wildcat defensive line by routinely pounding Moreno and Thomas Brown in to the middle of the marshmallow soft Kentucky interior. Both logged 22 carries and a touchdown. Matthew Stafford on the other hand reverted to the 2006 version for the start of this game throwing a couple of bad balls, and generally displaying shaky decision making. He did recover from his bad first quarter to have a decent game, but it was clear as day that Mark Richt took the fate of the game out of his hands after the first quarter, and that is not a bad thing, it is what I would do with those two in the backfield. Georgia fans have to think that this was a one game aberration for Stafford.

West Virginia

Pat White is the best Football player I have ever seen live. Hands down, no contest. He is that good. The game against Cincinnati was all him, just all him, second game in a row with over 100 yards rushing and passing, against a defense that is far, far better than Louisville’s. That offense is part of the equation, and it accentuates what he does well, namely making sound decisions, but he would be a phenomenal player, no matter who he plays and what offensive system he is. He wouldn’t be nearly as breathtaking in another system, but he would be just as effective. The one thing that was interesting about this game in particular was that WVU was almost completely devoid of the off the to races plays that have become a calling card with this offense. The longest run of the night for WVU was a 17 yard jaunt by the panic inducing Noel Devine. Pat White did hit two passes for over 20 yards, a screen to Slaton for 32, a roll out and impossible throw to Dorrell Jolla for 26, but those were the longest plays of the night. WVU was just methodical with the offense and essentially pounded Cincinnati into submission. Cincinnati was constantly in position to make plays, but White, and to a lesser extent Slaton, would just give the defenders a leg, take it away, and squeeze out another 5 yards out of a dead play time after time. Simply amazing. Ben Mauk was unbelievable as well. Keeping plays alive with his scrambling. He hit the defense with repeatedly with big plays off the scramble drills. Jeremy Maclin and Michale Crabtree are the best Freshman receivers in the country, with no question but Marcus Barnett of the Bearcats is a guy to keep your eyes on. His line Saturday, 10 catches 210 yards 2 TD’s.

 

Games of National Relevence, November 17th

Ohio State at Michigan
I said early in the week that Michigan was going to win this game, and I am sticking by that prediction now. Ohio State did show cracks in their run defense last week, and they have shown cracks in their pass defense against Purdue, Minnesota and Wisconsin. The thing that separates last weeks game from the other three, is that Illinois was able pass the ball in addition to being able to run it. Their four touchdowns all came on the iffy arm of the Juice. Against Michigan, OSU is going to be going against a far more competent quarterback, at least in theory, with the added threat of a proven ground game. That statement relies heavily upon the assumed health of Mike Hart and Chad Henne, if Hart is out the offense will struggle, with or without Henne in there. I am betting on Hart playing no matter what, and I am better on him having a good game. I don’t think he is going to rip it up in Biakabutuka like fashion, but matching his performance from last year should be a given. The bottom line for the Buckeyes, don’t put the game in the hands Boeckman, it is not that he can’t win the game for you, because he can, but he can lose it just as easily with his penchant for throwing interceptions in bunches.

I say: Michigan 27 – Ohio State 24

West Virginia at Cincinnati
This is the toughest game left on the schedule for West Virginia. Going on the road, in prime time, facing a team who views this as the biggest game in the history of the program. That scenario did not work out so well last time for West Virginia.

There are a lot of similarities between the defenses of South Florida and Cincinnati. Stellar pair of NFL caliber CB’s, deep and talented defensive lines, and good solid and consistent play from the linebackers. There is a crucial difference though when it comes to the prior history with the Mountaineers. South Florida played them very well in both 2005 and 2006. Cincinnati, not so much (2005 and 2006). Cincinnati should keep this game very close. The great weakness of UC’s defense is the pass defense. The secondary is boom or bust, they make plays in the form of interceptions or they get toasted. They struggle with offenses that push the ball deep with consistency. If there is one thing WVU does not do well on offense it is throwing the ball over the top. Cincinnati should be able to move the ball well with Bionic Ben Mauk, I just don’t think UC scores enough to win.

I say: West Virginia 31 – Cincinnati 24

Kentucky at Georgia
Right now, few teams are playing better than the Georgia Bulldogs. They are doing pretty much everything right. They are playing physical football with the running of Knowshon Moreno, hitting big pass plays with Matthew Stafford and the defense that was such an unknown coming into this season has been phenomenal as of late completely dominating Auburn and limiting the Tebow led Gators to one of their worst performances of the year. Kentucky has gotten back into the top 25 in a very sneaky way, by beating Vanderbilt after losing three of 4 in the stretch of a month. The question is whether or not Kentucky is as good as they were to start the season. I say no, the thing that still sticks in my mind is losing to South Carolina, Mississippi State and Florida, and looking very bad in the process, not the once in a lifetime win over LSU. Kentucky is not good against the run, and will be powerless to stop the Moreno, and UGA will put 40+ on the board again. Andre Woodson will put up yards and points on that secondary, just not enough of them.

I say: Georgia 41 – Kentucky 34

Boston College at Clemson
The image of two teams going on completely divergent paths right now. Clemson is embarking on their typical November trip to save Tommy Bowden’s job, and I must admit that it is going quite swimmingly for them. I really do like this team and the way that they are playing right now. The defense has been phenomenal all year long, who would have thought the defensive line of the Tigers would be almost as well as it did last year without the presence of Gaines Adams? Certainly not me. Clemson is on the up and up, Boston College, on the other hand, is falling from their lofty perch of just three weeks ago, falling hard. Those four minutes of exquisite play against Virginia Tech by Matt Ryan, and his sturdily average group of WR’s have been forgotten. Whipped away by two horrible performances by the defense in general, and the running backs in particular. You know you are in trouble when your defense gives up 450 yards plus in consecutive weeks against throughly average offenses. Clemson on the other hand is not average, far from it they are very balanced and very explosive. Another case where a truly stellar QB won’t be able to overcome his average peers.

I say: Clemson 38 – Boston College 28

Bonus Coverage
Another game to keep an eye on is Iowa State at Kansas. Seriously. Iowa State has been playing much, much better since getting throttled by Texas. They limited Oklahoma to their lowest non Colorado offensive output, and they put the breaks on the Missouri offense better than anyone else has this year, acctually outgaining them. The defense has continued to make plays for them in wins over Colorado and Kansas State. I am not calling for the upset, but it is a game to keep an eye on.

Meet The New Boss, Same As The Old Boss.

For the second year in a row the champion of the Big 10 will be the winner of the Michigan and Ohio State game. I say second, but in reality this is what happens pretty much every year in the Big 10, it is odd when the winner of “the game” doesn’t win at least a share of the conference. Most of the talk so far this week has been about the impending retirement of Lloyd Carr whose, perfectly even record with Ohio State has been a source of some embarrassment for Michigan fans.  Because of the Carr situation there has been little, or relatively little talk about the game in and of itself. .

Ohio State is the favorite, simply because of the prior history in this match up, but there are a lot of factors that point me in the direction of Michigan for this game. Michigan is highly motivated for this game, that is not to say that they weren’t last year as well, but the fact that the core group of seniors came back this season precisely for this game. I don’t really see a reason why Michigan won’t be able to move the ball with consistency against this defense, and that has nothing to do with last week and Illinois running roughshod over the previously vaunted Buckeye defense. Just merely the reflection on the capabilities that Mike Hart brings to this offense. The fact of the matter is that with Mike Hart relatively healthy and in the lineup dramatically increases the production capacity of that offense. You need look no further than last week for proof of Harts impact. Michigan couldn’t run the ball against Wisconsin with the same offensive line that will be trotted out to field on Saturday, but with Hart playing Michigan can run on anyone in the country, they proved that last year against this defense.

One thing that has been lost in Ohio State’s start is the lack of takeaways that the defense has forced. It hasn’t been an issue because, up until last week, none of the games have been close enough for a turnover to have any impact upon the flow of the game in the macro. They simply haven’t needed them, the success has been fueled by great field position provided by shutting down opposing offenses early in drives. But that is something that will have an impact on this game. Most of OSU’s takeaways have come in the form of fumbles, but the tricky thing is that Mike Hart doesn’t fumble. He just doesn’t do it. You are better off forcing a stupid decision out of Chad Henne than waiting and hoping for Hart to put the ball on the ground. On the flip side of that Boeckman is prone to making the same decisions that all first year QB’s a prone to, bad one’s. But like I said, his defense has been so good all season that his margin of error has been gargantuan in scale. Against Michigan it will be much, much smaller and that could be a problem if Chris Wells has a performance like he did last week. Wells will have to take a lot of pressure off his quarterback for Ohio State to be successful, putting the game on the arm of Boeckman would be a mistake, simply because Michigan has been so good at forcing mistakes all year. There are a lot of reasons to like Michigan in this game, and I do subscribe to most of them, and I do think that they are due, and that they will win this game, but lord knows I have been wrong before.

Sunday Musings: November 10th

Ohio State
Just as I was starting to believe in this Ohio State team, what do they do? They go out there and choke down a sure fire chance at a national championship. What is most shocking to me is the way in which Illinois won the game. All of the touchdowns came on the arm of Juice Williams, but the game was won with the legs of Juice Williams and his backfield mate Rashard Mendenhall, and to a lesser extent Daniel Dufrene, while he certainly had the most yardage, his stats were padded by an 80 yard run. Illinois ran they absolute, most basic plays, zone reads, sprint options, QB powers, really basic single wing stuff and the Buckeye defense couldn’t do a thing about it. The final drive for the Illini was awfully impressive, they only gained 42 yards on that drive but they ate up 8 minutes of clock. Ron Zook channeled his inner Les Miles, going for it on 4th and inches, on his own 33. This was one of those rare games where Jim Tressell was absolutely powerless to manufacture an answer. It happened against Texas in 2005, and against Florida last year, and it happened again last night. Long live the Zooker, the Dick Vermeil of College Football. The BCS is in complete disarray, embrace the chaos.

Connecticut
And so it ends. It was fun while it lasted, but really, it was going to end at some point, and end it did, emphatically so.

UConn, the team that has lived on the good side of the turnover margin all season long, even in their previous loss to Virginia, ended up on the wrong side of the margin yesterday, but that was not half the problem. The biggest problem for the Huskies was that they couldn’t run, and if ever there was a run to win team it is the UConn Huskies. That is how they play, very conservatively and very, very physically. The problem is what happens when another team is more physical? A loss is what happens, the end result of 22 yards rushing for the game, and a second half with a grand total of 46 yards of offense. Cincinnati is still alive for the Big East championship, needing to win out, and for WVU to beat UConn. The Battle Royale for the Big East championship takes place next Saturday at the Nip. Good times, good times.

Georgia
This team continues to impress me, and not just because they looked fucking sick in their Blacks.

I am continually amazed at how well, and how disciplined this team is week in and week out. They do commit penalties, and lots of them, but they don’t turn the ball over, and they don’t make stupid mistakes. Even this week they didn’t play their best game, or anything close to what I still view was their best effort, the thrashing of Florida in the worlds largest outdoor non cocktail party. But they gutted it out with Moreno and Stafford leading the way, and that excessively young and jovial defense absolutely pounding Auburn into submission. Knowshon Moreno is a guy who, at some point in the near future, will not have his greatness questioned, like Glenn Dorsey and Darren McFadden now. Everyone will just know how good he is. Get it, know. As it stands right now UGA is being set up for a BCS party like LSU was last year. They do not control their own destiny for the SEC East birth, much like LSU last year, but they do control their own destiny for a BCS bowl. Meaning they win out and they get a BCS bowl, if they get in to the SEC Title game there is a distinct possibility that their BCS bid gets flushed down the toilet ala Arkansas, circa 2006. So Georgia fans, which do you want the SEC East division title, or 17 million dollars? Decisions, decisions.

Michigan
I know that Henne and Hart were hurt for this game, and I know that you had a freshman QB calling the shots. But how does an offense this powerful get shut down that completely by a defense that can best be described as selectively permeable, like the cells in your body. 30 percent of Michigan’s production came on one play, a 97 yard slant. But the thing that is most alarming is that Michigan couldn’t run the ball, with anyone back there. Which is something that Michigan should just be able to do behind that offensive line, but they couldn’t. UNLV ran for more yards against Wisconsin than Michigan did. The question to be asked is whether or not this is a one game apparition, or is it further proof that Michigan is the throughly average team with the famous name that it was at the start of the season. I tend to favor the former over the later, because we have plenty of conclusive evidence out there that a Michigan team without Henne and Hart is not the same as one with Henne and Hart.

Kansas
Do the Jayhawks deserve a national title spot if they win out? I say yes, but I will follow that statement up with another, they deserve a spot, but that game won’t be pretty. They do not have the talent that the other teams in the discussion have, but they play at such a high level that they can play with anyone, and they can, in theory, beat anyone. The thing is that Kansas is maxed out right now, they can not possibly play any better than they are right now, and they have been doing that from the start of the season, their ability to maintain this level of play is rather astounding. But, in a one game scenario, I wouldn’t take them against anyone else in the top 10, simply because other teams capabilities are far superior to that of Kansas. That is not to say that they couldn’t win, but playing the odds I would bet on Oregon or LSU getting up, and playing at a level that Kansas couldn’t match.