Mountain West Shit: Part 2, Predictions

Watch out for those Horned Frogs. That is the common sentiment, coming from all corners of the College Football world, at least from all corners that pay even the slightest attention to College Football outside the bright lights, and big money glare of the BCS. And it is not hard to see why, they do bring back 9 defensive starters. They do have a few people here and there back on offense. But you can be sure of this much, the Horned Frog defense is not going to lose any games. A lack of offensive production might. Thursday I called to light that BYU, TCU and Utah have managed to distance themselves from the rest of the conference. That does not mean that they are impervious to challanges from outside their own ranks, just that it would take a near perfect effort to do so. That being said, I fully expect it to happen, and I expect that school to be New Mexico, if for no other reason than their prodigious returning experience. However, within that top group, the differences between the three schools are not very large at all. It is assumed that TCU is going to run roughshod over the rest of the conference, on their way to a BCS bid and glory for the conference once more. But it is not that simple.

Standings

1. Texas Christian
2. Utah
3. New Mexico
4. Brigham Young
5. Colorado State
6. Wyoming
7. San Diego State
8. UNLV
9. Air Force

Conference Game of the Year – Utah vs TCU – October 18

It goes without saying that this will be the toughest gam that either team plays this season. They both have match ups with “better” teams from BCS conferences, Texas for TCU and Louisville and Oregon State for Utah. Both teams are capible of pulling the upset in any of those games. But they will be decided underdogs in all of those games. For this game, as it stands now, it will be the first time both schools will face a team that is inherently “even” with them. That is the signifigence of this game. Looking a little further, the game gets more interesting. It will be the best offense in the conference vs. the best defense in the conference. Utah is going to be explosive on offense this year, I would bet on them rushing for 150 and passing for 250 for an average. But this will also be the best defense they will face all season. No disrespect to the defense of Oregon State which will be very good this year, but TCU has an elite defense, not just in the conference, but in the nation. Utah probably will have another top 25 offense, they were 11 in their only year with Brian Johnson at QB in 2005. Johnson is back, and there in lies the key to the match up. Last year, BYU won at TCU behind the flawless perfection of John Beck. You have to beat TCU through the air, you can’t do it on the ground. Johnson is going to have perimiter weapons for sure, so the risk is there for TCU. I don’t see the Utah offense, or the TCU defense outplaying each other in a drastic fashion. Both will have their moments if Johnson plays like I think he can. If Johnson throws for 250 and a few scores and chips something in on the ground, the game will be in the hands of a new starter facing a good but not great defense. In the end I think the Horned Frogs will get it done with some timely offense and a defense that will bend but not break.   

All Conference Team

• QB: Brian Johnson, Utah
• RB: Aaron Brown, TCU
• RB: Rodney Furgeson, UNLV
• TE: Kory Sperry, Colorado State
• C: Blake Schlueter, TCU
• G: Marty Lindner, TCU
• G: Travis Bright, BYU
• T: Jason Boone, Utah
• T: Dallas Reynolds, BYU
• DE: Chase Ortiz, TCU
• DT: Gabe Long, Utah
• DT: Blake Smith, Colorado State
• DE: Tommy Blake, TCU
• LB: Robert Henson, TCU
• LB: Russell Allen, San Diego State
• LB: Beau Bell, UNLV
• CB: Mil’Von James, UNLV
• CB: Julius Stinson, Wyoming
• S: Brian Bonner, TCU
• S: Steve Tate, Utah
• K: Sergio Aguayo, UNLV
• P: Louis Sakoda, Utah
• KR: Brice McCain, Utah
• PR: Hoost Marsh, Wyoming

Conference Notes

San Diego State is one of the more puzzelling programs to contemplate. They have some of the best facilites in their conference. They have access to Southern California, one of the deepest regions in the country when it comes to recruiting. But they never, ever seem to be able to work their advantages for their own benifit. They should be a perenial conference contender, but they just aren’t…Colorado State is on a slippery slope right now. Once, a nationaly known and respected mid major program, the Rams have been going down hill of late. They have not had a winning season since 2003. I don’t think that he is in danger of losing his job, one of the perks of having your name attached to the stadium, but I can’t imagine that the good folks in Fort Collins are too happy about it either…It is just not a good time to be playing Football in Colorado, Colorado, Colorado State and Air Force combined to go 10 for 36 last season…Air Force is going to Air it out this season, pun intended. That is if Troy Calhoun gets his way. Which might not be a good thing because the personal on hand is ill suited for the spread. However, in time the spread can come to nuetralize the disadvantages Air Force faces in the same way the option did…The time is now for Rocky Hinds. The former USC transfer now at UNLV has two years to live up to his VHT billing coming out of High School

Mountain West Shit: Part 1, The Big Three

Shhh! Don’t look now but the Mountain West has quietly improved in the last four years. The conference has accutally improved, a lot since Utah’s BCS run in 2004. That is a fact that is over looked almost any time the conference is discussed. The conference is markedly better here and now, in 2007. There are several reasons for that, each relativly obscured by a lack of prospective from the national media. One of them is TCU. This may seem like a rather elimentary reasoning for the improvement of the Mountain West, because everyone loves the Horned Frogs right now, and they are the anointed carriers of the Mountain West banner. But the Frogs have only been in the conference for two seasons. Of all of the membership changes that took place in 2005 you could argue, very strongly, that the best addition was the Mountain West snapping up the deserted Horned Frogs. They have brought something to the conference that has been lacking for the majority of the Mountain West’s 8 year existance. Namely defense, but not just good defense, but great, boardering on an elite level of play.

The addition of TCU changed the dynamic of the conference in a drastic mannor. Most MWC schools dictate the course of a game with their offense, every school did that. Defense was an after thought for most of the conference coaches. But Gary Patterson works in mysterious ways, he dictates the outcome of games from the defensive side of the ball, forcing the hand of oppoasing coaches by putting them into predictable situations. Yes TCU is just one school, and it might be over stating the facts to say that he changed the way everyone else coached in the macro. But in the micro he did just that, he forced others to approach the game in a way that was not comfortable for them. That is a contributing factor to TCU’s hostile takeover the conference. His “radical” approach to Mountain West Football, caught everyone by surprise in 2005. Only the best coaches can adopt to that. Bronco Mendenhall did just that by beating the Frogs in Forth Worth last season, and in doing so, the yin to Pattersons yang emerged.  

I hate to use the term, but for want of a better word, the “resurgence” of BYU is another reason for the strength of the conference. BYU has not shown a remarkable improvement under Bronco Mendenhall, at last in terms of offensive production. Their offensive production is pretty similar to those of the Crowten era. But the change is on the defensive side of the ball. While not approaching the levels of TCU, they are markedly better than anything Crowten was able to produce. Now the Cougars return 6 defensive starters, and I am predicting them to maintain their current level of production, even though the offensvie ypg can’t help but to go down given the extenuating circumstances that encircle that offense. While BYU will more than likely never reach national prominence again, they will be a perenial threat in the MWC.

Utah is going to be the most interesting team to watch in this conference, the Utes could very easily spoil TCU’s BCS dream this year. Utah has long since faded from the national scene. The vision of their trashing of Pitt in the Fiesta Bowl a distant memory, to the more recent BCS upstart memory, the one involving those Bronco’s of Boise State and the borken heart of Adrian Peterson.

Once Urban Meyer and Alex Smith left so did the attention, and in most cases the respect that the Utes had earned. But what people missed out on, what most people didn’t know is that the Utah offense that had been so potent the year before. The offense that ensnared the hearts of Football fans with its creativity and bravado was still very, very good. Without Alex Smith and without Urban Meyer and Dan Mullen, but with Brian Johnson they put up very, very good numbers, and rather better numbers throwing the ball. Last year Johnson was out and the offense was breaking in 6 new starters. Predictibly the offense struggled, but all those first year starters got a lot of experience. This year Johnson returns, along with 9 other starters. Expect big numbers from the Utes, and don’t be surprised if it is the Utes who put an end to TCU’s BCS dream instead of the BYU.

That is all for now, back tommarow with Mountain West predictions.  

A Tough Road to Hoe Mr. Calhoun, A Tough Road to Hoe

I must admit that a quick glance at this page would lead one to believe that I have become a bit Colorado-centric but I think this is a fairly interesting story. Let me begin with saying that I have the utmost respect of the Men who play Football for any of the service academies. I doubt that anyone in the country loves the game more than them. Honestly Football should be the farthest thing from their minds, and the least of their concerns. But still they devote as much time to Football as every other kid, at every other program in the country.

I would fancy a bet that to most College Football fans the state of the Air Force Falcons Football program is of little concern or interest. That is a shame because for a very long time this program did everything the right way. They embodied the spirit of their coach on the field. They were like Nebraska under Dr. Thom Osborne; maybe not as flash and fast as Huskers but to me they carried themselves the right way. In 2005 the Falcons program was thrown upon the national stage for some statements made by the Monarch. After a frustrating loss to the, almost BCS bound Horned Frogs of Texas Christian (More on them in a minute) DeBerry remarked that “…you don’t see a lot of minority athletes in our program.” If that weren’t enough when asked for clarification on that quote later in the week he responded with “It just seems to be that way, that Afro-American kids can run very, very well. That doesn’t mean that Caucasian kids and other descents can’t run, but it’s very obvious to me they run extremely well.” Aside from research suggesting that Berry actually was pretty close to the topic regardless of his intent http://www.jonentine.com/reviews/quokka_01.htm. But anytime the topic of race is involved a maelstrom ensues and someone is going to go down.

It seemed inevitable; that soundbite would herald the end of the Fisher DeBerry era. And it was, one year later. DeBerry was a wonderful coach and produced a lot of good for Air Force Football. But it looks as if that 10 second soundbite is going to brand him. Just like the image of Woody Hayes punching Charlie Bauman has long since been ingrained into every College Football fans mind. The point is, if you mention Air Force that situation is likely to be on the top of every one’s minds.

Troy Calhoun has the task of changing that perception. I like his enthusiasm but he has a long way to go. Air Force has never been a consist ant conference title threat. They would string a series of winning seasons together with the occasional set back year being offset by a conference crown. They have dominated the Commander In Chiefs Trophy but have been middle of the road in whatever conference they occupy at the time. The Falcons last won a title 8 years and a conference ago. As it stands now Air Force looks even further away from that 1998 WAC Championship now. In the three years since the last Air Force winning season the Mountain West has improved by leaps and bounds. In 2004 Utah crashed the BCS and won America’s heart. In 2005 TCU had a let down after beating Oklahoma in Norman, inexplicably losing to SMU in Dallas costing them a BCS bid. Last season a resurgent BYU was this close to going undefeated. Losing two games by a combined 6 points and missing out on joining Boise State in the BCS. The Mountain West has established in short order their spot as the preeminent non BCS conference.

Which amplifies the task at hand for Mr. Calhoun. Can Air Force keep pace with the rapidly improving Mountain West? I don’t think they can. I am not sure they will ever be as consistent as they were in hay day of DeBerry. They will string together a few winning seasons here and there but that will be the extent of it. The fact that they will always be a tough and aggressive team will help, it is just the nature of the kids who enroll in the service academies, but I don’t think they will ever escape from the basement of the Mountain West, which is were they are going to find themselves again this year. You have to hope for the best for those kids, but they might soon join Army at bottom of the Bowl Subdivision barrel.