Games of National Relevence, November 17th

Ohio State at Michigan
I said early in the week that Michigan was going to win this game, and I am sticking by that prediction now. Ohio State did show cracks in their run defense last week, and they have shown cracks in their pass defense against Purdue, Minnesota and Wisconsin. The thing that separates last weeks game from the other three, is that Illinois was able pass the ball in addition to being able to run it. Their four touchdowns all came on the iffy arm of the Juice. Against Michigan, OSU is going to be going against a far more competent quarterback, at least in theory, with the added threat of a proven ground game. That statement relies heavily upon the assumed health of Mike Hart and Chad Henne, if Hart is out the offense will struggle, with or without Henne in there. I am betting on Hart playing no matter what, and I am better on him having a good game. I don’t think he is going to rip it up in Biakabutuka like fashion, but matching his performance from last year should be a given. The bottom line for the Buckeyes, don’t put the game in the hands Boeckman, it is not that he can’t win the game for you, because he can, but he can lose it just as easily with his penchant for throwing interceptions in bunches.

I say: Michigan 27 – Ohio State 24

West Virginia at Cincinnati
This is the toughest game left on the schedule for West Virginia. Going on the road, in prime time, facing a team who views this as the biggest game in the history of the program. That scenario did not work out so well last time for West Virginia.

There are a lot of similarities between the defenses of South Florida and Cincinnati. Stellar pair of NFL caliber CB’s, deep and talented defensive lines, and good solid and consistent play from the linebackers. There is a crucial difference though when it comes to the prior history with the Mountaineers. South Florida played them very well in both 2005 and 2006. Cincinnati, not so much (2005 and 2006). Cincinnati should keep this game very close. The great weakness of UC’s defense is the pass defense. The secondary is boom or bust, they make plays in the form of interceptions or they get toasted. They struggle with offenses that push the ball deep with consistency. If there is one thing WVU does not do well on offense it is throwing the ball over the top. Cincinnati should be able to move the ball well with Bionic Ben Mauk, I just don’t think UC scores enough to win.

I say: West Virginia 31 – Cincinnati 24

Kentucky at Georgia
Right now, few teams are playing better than the Georgia Bulldogs. They are doing pretty much everything right. They are playing physical football with the running of Knowshon Moreno, hitting big pass plays with Matthew Stafford and the defense that was such an unknown coming into this season has been phenomenal as of late completely dominating Auburn and limiting the Tebow led Gators to one of their worst performances of the year. Kentucky has gotten back into the top 25 in a very sneaky way, by beating Vanderbilt after losing three of 4 in the stretch of a month. The question is whether or not Kentucky is as good as they were to start the season. I say no, the thing that still sticks in my mind is losing to South Carolina, Mississippi State and Florida, and looking very bad in the process, not the once in a lifetime win over LSU. Kentucky is not good against the run, and will be powerless to stop the Moreno, and UGA will put 40+ on the board again. Andre Woodson will put up yards and points on that secondary, just not enough of them.

I say: Georgia 41 – Kentucky 34

Boston College at Clemson
The image of two teams going on completely divergent paths right now. Clemson is embarking on their typical November trip to save Tommy Bowden’s job, and I must admit that it is going quite swimmingly for them. I really do like this team and the way that they are playing right now. The defense has been phenomenal all year long, who would have thought the defensive line of the Tigers would be almost as well as it did last year without the presence of Gaines Adams? Certainly not me. Clemson is on the up and up, Boston College, on the other hand, is falling from their lofty perch of just three weeks ago, falling hard. Those four minutes of exquisite play against Virginia Tech by Matt Ryan, and his sturdily average group of WR’s have been forgotten. Whipped away by two horrible performances by the defense in general, and the running backs in particular. You know you are in trouble when your defense gives up 450 yards plus in consecutive weeks against throughly average offenses. Clemson on the other hand is not average, far from it they are very balanced and very explosive. Another case where a truly stellar QB won’t be able to overcome his average peers.

I say: Clemson 38 – Boston College 28

Bonus Coverage
Another game to keep an eye on is Iowa State at Kansas. Seriously. Iowa State has been playing much, much better since getting throttled by Texas. They limited Oklahoma to their lowest non Colorado offensive output, and they put the breaks on the Missouri offense better than anyone else has this year, acctually outgaining them. The defense has continued to make plays for them in wins over Colorado and Kansas State. I am not calling for the upset, but it is a game to keep an eye on.

Anarchy!!!

Run! Scurry! Flee!

Nothing makes sense, the sport is in an unbelievable state of panic. Good day to you, I have some drinking to do.

Take Your Pick; Oregon, LSU

Ohio State is the best team in the country. That is something that really can’t be disputed at this point in time. Whether or not the Buckeye’s are the world beating team of legends many OSU fans wish them to be isn’t something we know right now, we can make assumptions about where this team stands in the pantheon of great teams, but those type of discussions are premature by any reasonable standard, and bordering on insanity given the tenor of this season. Regardless, that is a discussion that should be reserved for the morning of January the 8th. And so it is that, with  4 weeks remaining in the season, the defining narrative for the month of November is found. Oregon and LSU; Who ya got.

The complexity of the debate between these two teams is intricate, and thereby inherently complicated. But the general tenor that will be taken, by most, not so much in the media, but amongst fans like yourselves will boil down to a simple and epic conference debate, between what are, in my opinion at least, the two best conferences in the country. I urge you not to get caught up in that, because, frankly there is no proper answer to that question, you could take the top ten of the SEC and line them up against the PAC 10 and pretty much every game would be a toss up. There is no right answer to that question, always keep that in mind when you start/engage in/finish this argument at your local bar. As for Oregon and LSU, there is a lot to cover, so let us begin by laying down a statistical base for both teams

Oregon

• Scoring Offense – 42.8
• Scoring Defense – 22.0
• Rush Offense – 272.22
• Rush Defense – 134.67
• Pass Offense – 238.3
• Pass Defense – 269.9
• Total Offense – 510.6
• Total Defense – 404.4

LSU

• Scoring Offense – 37.2
• Scoring Defense – 17.4
• Rush Offense – 209.00
• Rush Defense – 65.89
• Pass Offense – 230.8
• Pass Defense – 168.8
• Total Offense – 439.8
• Total Defense – 234.7

On the face of it the old cliche about the unstoppable force and the immovable object does seem to apply here. When you look at the two teams, and what they have done to this point there are a lot of things that they have in common. Both schools fell victim to a top 10 ranked conference rival, Cal for Oregon and Kentucky for LSU. For both schools, that loss is beginging to have a larger and larger negative impact every week. Cal has been a wreck since that game in Autzen, going 1-3 and losing to Oregon State, Arizona State and the hypeschizophrenic UCLA. Cal just got off the snide last week against Washington State. Barely. Kentucky is doing the same thing that Cal is doing, namely sliding into the obscurity from whence they came winning one of their last 4, of course that singular win would be against LSU.

Both teams have run roughshod over their opponents, with the obvious and glaring exceptions of the games that they lost. Though, admittedly LSU has been surviving on the ability of its defense to be a brick wall while Matt Flynn continues to make a couple iffy decisions a game, decisions that often keep the score closer than it otherwise should be.

It is also interesting to note that the glaring weaknesses of both teams would be pitted against the other, with the fate of the game possibly at stake. Oregon has issues in the secondary. They have a middling pass efficiency rating, they give up a lot of yards, and don’t force an overwhelming number of mistakes out of opposing QB’s. The major weakness of LSU, in my eyes, is that Matt Flynn and the recently departed Ryan Perrilloux have made questionable decisions all season long. Last week’s game against Alabama was closer than it should have been because of Matt Flynn’s decisionmaking in the first half. He did redeem himself later on, but that doesn’t solve the problem.

In the end, this debate will center upon one thing. Who would win in a mythical neutral site game between LSU and Oregon? While I do subscribe, wholeheartedly, to the schema of the great LSU defense, there is one man who can make that defense and its collection of imposing Argonath of indestructibility look human, Tim Tebow. He is the only person who has had that defense on it’s heels for any sustained period of time. Florida could very well have won that game for want of a running game. The offenses of Oregon and Florida are eerily similar from where I am sitting in terms of scheme, personnel and objective. The one glaring difference between the two, Jonathan Stewart. I love Percy Harvin, and he can be used effectivly out of a set back possition, but he can’t simply be a tailback for any sustained period of time. LSU would move the ball on Oregon, quite effectively, but the iffy decision making of the dual headed LSU quarterback monster has come very, very close to biting them in the ass. On the other hand you have Dennis Dixon, a man that I made fun of in the summer.  The baseball didn’t hurt his decision making, and that would be the difference in a hypothetical match up. Right now I think that Oregon deserves the match up with OSU, that is, as always subject to change. So, tell me, who is your pick between the two, leave your responses below.

Superman That Shit

This is going to be a rough week at school so I won’t have time to blog until Thursday at the earliest.

So, What The Fuck Was That. Again.

I have stopped trying to make sense of what happened this weekend, as the college football world was turned on it’s head for the third time in as many Saturdays. It has become an exercise in futility to try and decipher what it all means because the probability is high that the same thing is going happen next Saturday. and given my penchant for occasionally swimming in the vast and expansive sea of futility in the course of my education and everyday life those waters in everyday life I’d rather not do so with my hobby as well. No looking back today, forward tomorrow.