Games of National Relevence, November 17th

Ohio State at Michigan
I said early in the week that Michigan was going to win this game, and I am sticking by that prediction now. Ohio State did show cracks in their run defense last week, and they have shown cracks in their pass defense against Purdue, Minnesota and Wisconsin. The thing that separates last weeks game from the other three, is that Illinois was able pass the ball in addition to being able to run it. Their four touchdowns all came on the iffy arm of the Juice. Against Michigan, OSU is going to be going against a far more competent quarterback, at least in theory, with the added threat of a proven ground game. That statement relies heavily upon the assumed health of Mike Hart and Chad Henne, if Hart is out the offense will struggle, with or without Henne in there. I am betting on Hart playing no matter what, and I am better on him having a good game. I don’t think he is going to rip it up in Biakabutuka like fashion, but matching his performance from last year should be a given. The bottom line for the Buckeyes, don’t put the game in the hands Boeckman, it is not that he can’t win the game for you, because he can, but he can lose it just as easily with his penchant for throwing interceptions in bunches.

I say: Michigan 27 – Ohio State 24

West Virginia at Cincinnati
This is the toughest game left on the schedule for West Virginia. Going on the road, in prime time, facing a team who views this as the biggest game in the history of the program. That scenario did not work out so well last time for West Virginia.

There are a lot of similarities between the defenses of South Florida and Cincinnati. Stellar pair of NFL caliber CB’s, deep and talented defensive lines, and good solid and consistent play from the linebackers. There is a crucial difference though when it comes to the prior history with the Mountaineers. South Florida played them very well in both 2005 and 2006. Cincinnati, not so much (2005 and 2006). Cincinnati should keep this game very close. The great weakness of UC’s defense is the pass defense. The secondary is boom or bust, they make plays in the form of interceptions or they get toasted. They struggle with offenses that push the ball deep with consistency. If there is one thing WVU does not do well on offense it is throwing the ball over the top. Cincinnati should be able to move the ball well with Bionic Ben Mauk, I just don’t think UC scores enough to win.

I say: West Virginia 31 – Cincinnati 24

Kentucky at Georgia
Right now, few teams are playing better than the Georgia Bulldogs. They are doing pretty much everything right. They are playing physical football with the running of Knowshon Moreno, hitting big pass plays with Matthew Stafford and the defense that was such an unknown coming into this season has been phenomenal as of late completely dominating Auburn and limiting the Tebow led Gators to one of their worst performances of the year. Kentucky has gotten back into the top 25 in a very sneaky way, by beating Vanderbilt after losing three of 4 in the stretch of a month. The question is whether or not Kentucky is as good as they were to start the season. I say no, the thing that still sticks in my mind is losing to South Carolina, Mississippi State and Florida, and looking very bad in the process, not the once in a lifetime win over LSU. Kentucky is not good against the run, and will be powerless to stop the Moreno, and UGA will put 40+ on the board again. Andre Woodson will put up yards and points on that secondary, just not enough of them.

I say: Georgia 41 – Kentucky 34

Boston College at Clemson
The image of two teams going on completely divergent paths right now. Clemson is embarking on their typical November trip to save Tommy Bowden’s job, and I must admit that it is going quite swimmingly for them. I really do like this team and the way that they are playing right now. The defense has been phenomenal all year long, who would have thought the defensive line of the Tigers would be almost as well as it did last year without the presence of Gaines Adams? Certainly not me. Clemson is on the up and up, Boston College, on the other hand, is falling from their lofty perch of just three weeks ago, falling hard. Those four minutes of exquisite play against Virginia Tech by Matt Ryan, and his sturdily average group of WR’s have been forgotten. Whipped away by two horrible performances by the defense in general, and the running backs in particular. You know you are in trouble when your defense gives up 450 yards plus in consecutive weeks against throughly average offenses. Clemson on the other hand is not average, far from it they are very balanced and very explosive. Another case where a truly stellar QB won’t be able to overcome his average peers.

I say: Clemson 38 – Boston College 28

Bonus Coverage
Another game to keep an eye on is Iowa State at Kansas. Seriously. Iowa State has been playing much, much better since getting throttled by Texas. They limited Oklahoma to their lowest non Colorado offensive output, and they put the breaks on the Missouri offense better than anyone else has this year, acctually outgaining them. The defense has continued to make plays for them in wins over Colorado and Kansas State. I am not calling for the upset, but it is a game to keep an eye on.

Meet The New Boss, Same As The Old Boss.

For the second year in a row the champion of the Big 10 will be the winner of the Michigan and Ohio State game. I say second, but in reality this is what happens pretty much every year in the Big 10, it is odd when the winner of “the game” doesn’t win at least a share of the conference. Most of the talk so far this week has been about the impending retirement of Lloyd Carr whose, perfectly even record with Ohio State has been a source of some embarrassment for Michigan fans.  Because of the Carr situation there has been little, or relatively little talk about the game in and of itself. .

Ohio State is the favorite, simply because of the prior history in this match up, but there are a lot of factors that point me in the direction of Michigan for this game. Michigan is highly motivated for this game, that is not to say that they weren’t last year as well, but the fact that the core group of seniors came back this season precisely for this game. I don’t really see a reason why Michigan won’t be able to move the ball with consistency against this defense, and that has nothing to do with last week and Illinois running roughshod over the previously vaunted Buckeye defense. Just merely the reflection on the capabilities that Mike Hart brings to this offense. The fact of the matter is that with Mike Hart relatively healthy and in the lineup dramatically increases the production capacity of that offense. You need look no further than last week for proof of Harts impact. Michigan couldn’t run the ball against Wisconsin with the same offensive line that will be trotted out to field on Saturday, but with Hart playing Michigan can run on anyone in the country, they proved that last year against this defense.

One thing that has been lost in Ohio State’s start is the lack of takeaways that the defense has forced. It hasn’t been an issue because, up until last week, none of the games have been close enough for a turnover to have any impact upon the flow of the game in the macro. They simply haven’t needed them, the success has been fueled by great field position provided by shutting down opposing offenses early in drives. But that is something that will have an impact on this game. Most of OSU’s takeaways have come in the form of fumbles, but the tricky thing is that Mike Hart doesn’t fumble. He just doesn’t do it. You are better off forcing a stupid decision out of Chad Henne than waiting and hoping for Hart to put the ball on the ground. On the flip side of that Boeckman is prone to making the same decisions that all first year QB’s a prone to, bad one’s. But like I said, his defense has been so good all season that his margin of error has been gargantuan in scale. Against Michigan it will be much, much smaller and that could be a problem if Chris Wells has a performance like he did last week. Wells will have to take a lot of pressure off his quarterback for Ohio State to be successful, putting the game on the arm of Boeckman would be a mistake, simply because Michigan has been so good at forcing mistakes all year. There are a lot of reasons to like Michigan in this game, and I do subscribe to most of them, and I do think that they are due, and that they will win this game, but lord knows I have been wrong before.

Ohio State, Your Validation is Required

I have been called out, by some, for my skepticism of the Ohio State Buckeyes. I really don’t think that I am that far off base in my thinking about this team. Let me begin by saying that I do understand the desire to relate this team to the 2002 team. I get it. There is the young, stud running back, albeit with far fewer issues than this, studley young running back. The newbie Quarterback, who isn’t a complete novice, but lacking game experience. Who isn’t tasked with the complete control of the offense, just the ability to make timely plays. This Ohio State team has more weapons on the perimeter, but lacks the consistent threat of a good TE like Ben Hartsock provided on the 2002 team. Then there is the defense, which brings back some memories of the 2002 unit. James Laurinaitis filling the role of Matt Wilhelm. Malcom Jenkins providing the shutdown coverage of Chris Gamble. The safeties on this team aren’t nearly as good as Donnie Nickey and Michale Doss were, and the defensive line isn’t as good, lacking the all around playmaking ability that Will Smith provided. Vernon Gholston is a nice player, and though he induces fear with his physique, he isn’t the player Will Smith was. The point is, I get it, I really do. I see the similarities, and the justification for the comparison. But I don’t buy it. I still am reminded more of last years massively overrated disappointment, than the 2002 team.

That team in 2002 was good, very good. And there is a clear reason for that. They played on the margin almost exclusively, every game was a struggle. Nothing could be taken for granted with that team. Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Penn State, Purdue, Illinois and Michigan all pushed that team to the very edge, but they never went over. That is the main reason why that team was so good, they played every game on the margin of victory and defeat and they never lost. Nothing shocked them, they were comfortable in so many situations. Those close games created so much confidence in that team. That is the reason why they were able to beat Miami. They had seen just about everything, so the prospect of facing the Miami juggernaut didn’t get to them like it did to most other teams, who were defeated before the Canes even stepped on the field. Those close victories earned Ohio State the “Luckeyes” tag, but they were more valuable to that team than anyone could have known as they transpired.

Now, when you look at this Ohio State team, compared with that one, there is one glaring difference between the two. This OSU team has not been challenged, and more than likely will not be challenged this season, given the sorry condition of the Big 10. Not in the way that the 2002 team was, and in the end it will cost them. That is why this team reminds me of last years, more so than the canonized squad of 2002.

Last year Ohio State rolled everyone in their path, crushing all with reckless abandon. They didn’t have adversity. Michigan played them to three, but the opportunity was there for Ohio State to step on the throat of the Wolverines in the second half, but they didn’t take it. I remember talking to a friend about that. He thought it was genius for Jim Tressel to “let” Michigan get back in the game, in essence to let his team appear vulnerable. I didn’t know what to make of it. Was it just the appearance of vulnerability, or genuine vulnerability? I was fairly sure it was the former. Then this happened.

And it turned out to be the later, and emphatically so. The bottom line is that Ohio State never experienced true adversity in 2006. They rolled pretty much everyone without mercy, or trepidation. Even the Michigan game, the closest by virtue of score never really seemed in doubt to me. The Buckeyes seemed to have complete control for the duration of the game. There was no real adversity on the field for that team. So, when it came time for the National Championship everyone assumed they would roll. Ted Ginn had his moment, then Roy Hall had his. From that point on it was all Gators. Florida flipped the script and placed the Buckeyes in a position they had never experienced. In a hole. What is going to happen when that happens this year? Will they be able to dig themselves out? Those are the questions in the macro for this team. Untill they are answered sufficiently I will continue to doubt this team. But I have a sneaking suspecion that no one in the Big 10 can help OSU answer it.