There It Goes

I, for one, did not see this coming. With no Dennis Dixon this team is in a world of hurt, I am not sure if they will even win the conference. And another #2 bit the dust to an unranked team. That’s 10 on the year if you are keeping track.

Take Your Pick; Oregon, LSU

Ohio State is the best team in the country. That is something that really can’t be disputed at this point in time. Whether or not the Buckeye’s are the world beating team of legends many OSU fans wish them to be isn’t something we know right now, we can make assumptions about where this team stands in the pantheon of great teams, but those type of discussions are premature by any reasonable standard, and bordering on insanity given the tenor of this season. Regardless, that is a discussion that should be reserved for the morning of January the 8th. And so it is that, with  4 weeks remaining in the season, the defining narrative for the month of November is found. Oregon and LSU; Who ya got.

The complexity of the debate between these two teams is intricate, and thereby inherently complicated. But the general tenor that will be taken, by most, not so much in the media, but amongst fans like yourselves will boil down to a simple and epic conference debate, between what are, in my opinion at least, the two best conferences in the country. I urge you not to get caught up in that, because, frankly there is no proper answer to that question, you could take the top ten of the SEC and line them up against the PAC 10 and pretty much every game would be a toss up. There is no right answer to that question, always keep that in mind when you start/engage in/finish this argument at your local bar. As for Oregon and LSU, there is a lot to cover, so let us begin by laying down a statistical base for both teams

Oregon

• Scoring Offense – 42.8
• Scoring Defense – 22.0
• Rush Offense – 272.22
• Rush Defense – 134.67
• Pass Offense – 238.3
• Pass Defense – 269.9
• Total Offense – 510.6
• Total Defense – 404.4

LSU

• Scoring Offense – 37.2
• Scoring Defense – 17.4
• Rush Offense – 209.00
• Rush Defense – 65.89
• Pass Offense – 230.8
• Pass Defense – 168.8
• Total Offense – 439.8
• Total Defense – 234.7

On the face of it the old cliche about the unstoppable force and the immovable object does seem to apply here. When you look at the two teams, and what they have done to this point there are a lot of things that they have in common. Both schools fell victim to a top 10 ranked conference rival, Cal for Oregon and Kentucky for LSU. For both schools, that loss is beginging to have a larger and larger negative impact every week. Cal has been a wreck since that game in Autzen, going 1-3 and losing to Oregon State, Arizona State and the hypeschizophrenic UCLA. Cal just got off the snide last week against Washington State. Barely. Kentucky is doing the same thing that Cal is doing, namely sliding into the obscurity from whence they came winning one of their last 4, of course that singular win would be against LSU.

Both teams have run roughshod over their opponents, with the obvious and glaring exceptions of the games that they lost. Though, admittedly LSU has been surviving on the ability of its defense to be a brick wall while Matt Flynn continues to make a couple iffy decisions a game, decisions that often keep the score closer than it otherwise should be.

It is also interesting to note that the glaring weaknesses of both teams would be pitted against the other, with the fate of the game possibly at stake. Oregon has issues in the secondary. They have a middling pass efficiency rating, they give up a lot of yards, and don’t force an overwhelming number of mistakes out of opposing QB’s. The major weakness of LSU, in my eyes, is that Matt Flynn and the recently departed Ryan Perrilloux have made questionable decisions all season long. Last week’s game against Alabama was closer than it should have been because of Matt Flynn’s decisionmaking in the first half. He did redeem himself later on, but that doesn’t solve the problem.

In the end, this debate will center upon one thing. Who would win in a mythical neutral site game between LSU and Oregon? While I do subscribe, wholeheartedly, to the schema of the great LSU defense, there is one man who can make that defense and its collection of imposing Argonath of indestructibility look human, Tim Tebow. He is the only person who has had that defense on it’s heels for any sustained period of time. Florida could very well have won that game for want of a running game. The offenses of Oregon and Florida are eerily similar from where I am sitting in terms of scheme, personnel and objective. The one glaring difference between the two, Jonathan Stewart. I love Percy Harvin, and he can be used effectivly out of a set back possition, but he can’t simply be a tailback for any sustained period of time. LSU would move the ball on Oregon, quite effectively, but the iffy decision making of the dual headed LSU quarterback monster has come very, very close to biting them in the ass. On the other hand you have Dennis Dixon, a man that I made fun of in the summer.  The baseball didn’t hurt his decision making, and that would be the difference in a hypothetical match up. Right now I think that Oregon deserves the match up with OSU, that is, as always subject to change. So, tell me, who is your pick between the two, leave your responses below.

Oregon, Your Validation is Required

Yeah, it’s true, I am scared of the Oregon Ducks. I am scared of being burned by picking them to perform at a high level again. The way I see it, watching the Ducks is like watching one of those re runs of the Fresh Prince of Bel-Air on Nick at Nite. You know what is going to happen, because in all likely hood you have seen that particular episode at least a dozen times. You know the particular midget joke Will is going to use on Carlton, you know what Geoffry is going to be a total dick, you know the particular fat joke Uncle Phil will be subjected to. But you watch regardless, because knowing the outcome doesn’t stop the show from being entertaining. Thats the way I feel when I think about the Oregon Ducks over the last couple of years. They are desperately entertaining to watch, and flame out in a spectacular fashion, but knowing that doesn’t stop me from getting excited watching them.

While the Ducks are by no means the only team in this situation, Clemson is another team who follows an arc that is virtually the same every single year. Michigan State is another team who follows the same basic pattern. A fast start almost every year, followed by a collapse on the back end during pretty much every year under John L Smith. The thing about Oregon, at least from my perspective is that the collapse is triggered by different factors every year, injuries being the obvious example, not settling the QB situation last year is the chief reason for their failures last year when a ten year old could tell you who brings more to the offense. It if you actually look at Oregon under Mike Bellotti there is a pattern to the mayhem. His teams start fast but can’t usually keep the pace and inevitably cough up a losing streak of at least three games at some point in the season. The exceptions, as I noted yesterday, are, or rather seem to be, when the Ducks are a veteran team, I don’t have any imperial data to back up that assumption but I think it is right obviously. But the Fiesta Bowl champs from 2001 were a veteran team, as was the 2005 team. This Oregon team at first appearance looks to fit the bill of the 2001 and 2005 teams more than anything. According to the venerable Phil Steele the Ducks are the 4th most experienced team in the PAC 10.

I should buy into this team, I really should, because they appeal to my Football tastes in so many different ways. Yeah I am primarily a defense first kind of guy, but there are exceptions to the rule, usually made in the presence of a particularly volatile powder keg of offensive ability. They play fast and loose, have a lot of firepower on the edges and all of that is built upon a line of 4 senior starters on the offensive line. Sure there are things to worry about the defense being the obvious entity raising question marks. But, truth be told, the things to like greatly outnumber the negatives with this team.

But, the reputation of this team, at this point in the season is predicated almost entirely upon their thrashing of a Michigan team still reeling from the shot from Appalachian State. But in the wider scheme of things it came against a Michigan Defense which has a noted and storied history of failing at a massive level to contain, or slow down the spread offense. And no, shutting down Northwestern’s attack annually does not count, not when Michigan holds a massive edge in terms of athletic ability. In recent history every time Michigan has come up against a spread offense with a mobile QB and liberal sprinkling of speed option principals and talent that is on par they have failed. Vince Young caused them massive problems, but Troy Smith opened the door and showed the way with his initial Michigan performance, Vince simply walked through it as only Vince Young can. Michigan’s recent history with spread offense’s and mobile quarterbacks would point to a big, big game for Dennis Dixon in the Big House. And this was before Armanti Edwards shredded the young and exuberant Wolverine defense. After that performance it should not have surprised anyone to see Oregon slice and dice that defense at will. But it did, quite a lot in fact.

Oregon is playing well, not doubt about it. But this team is held in such high esteem at this point, not primarily because they are playing well, as you would think, but based upon that Michigan game. But when you actually take a minute to look at it, that is a not a true indication of of the ability of this team. It is a another example of the failure of Michigan to cope with the offense du jour in College Football, the spread, rather than the arrival of the Ducks as a team to be reckoned with on the national scene. The resume of Ducks is predicated largely upon that performance against Michigan a performance that really shouldn’t have surprised everyone like it did. A careful observer of the last few years shouldn’t have been surprised by that performance by Dennis Dixon and company. I think that Oregon has a world of potential, and can be a true player on the national stage, but I think that they are a little overrated at the moment. Because the crowing acheivement on their resume at this moment is that Michigan win. Now, a win is a win at all times, but in light of the past, the thrashing of Michigan doesn’t register quite as emphatically as it does when you initally read that Oregon beat Michigan headline in your local newspaper.

This week will be the truer measuring stick for the Ducks. Cal will provide a better indication of the relative strength of this team. Cal has the ability to go blow for blow with the Ducks, but there is an important thing to keep in mind. The Tennessee game might have been a dud, but it did show some cracks in the Cal amour. Tennessee was able to keep up with the Bears with out even pretending to field a competent running game. They simply passed the ball, a lot. Oregon will be the first truly balanced offense that the Bears will see this year and it will cause them a lot of problems. The important thing is that a win will go a long way to validating this Oregon. But a loss could start that familiar theme all over again.