Games of National Relevence, November 17th

Ohio State at Michigan
I said early in the week that Michigan was going to win this game, and I am sticking by that prediction now. Ohio State did show cracks in their run defense last week, and they have shown cracks in their pass defense against Purdue, Minnesota and Wisconsin. The thing that separates last weeks game from the other three, is that Illinois was able pass the ball in addition to being able to run it. Their four touchdowns all came on the iffy arm of the Juice. Against Michigan, OSU is going to be going against a far more competent quarterback, at least in theory, with the added threat of a proven ground game. That statement relies heavily upon the assumed health of Mike Hart and Chad Henne, if Hart is out the offense will struggle, with or without Henne in there. I am betting on Hart playing no matter what, and I am better on him having a good game. I don’t think he is going to rip it up in Biakabutuka like fashion, but matching his performance from last year should be a given. The bottom line for the Buckeyes, don’t put the game in the hands Boeckman, it is not that he can’t win the game for you, because he can, but he can lose it just as easily with his penchant for throwing interceptions in bunches.

I say: Michigan 27 – Ohio State 24

West Virginia at Cincinnati
This is the toughest game left on the schedule for West Virginia. Going on the road, in prime time, facing a team who views this as the biggest game in the history of the program. That scenario did not work out so well last time for West Virginia.

There are a lot of similarities between the defenses of South Florida and Cincinnati. Stellar pair of NFL caliber CB’s, deep and talented defensive lines, and good solid and consistent play from the linebackers. There is a crucial difference though when it comes to the prior history with the Mountaineers. South Florida played them very well in both 2005 and 2006. Cincinnati, not so much (2005 and 2006). Cincinnati should keep this game very close. The great weakness of UC’s defense is the pass defense. The secondary is boom or bust, they make plays in the form of interceptions or they get toasted. They struggle with offenses that push the ball deep with consistency. If there is one thing WVU does not do well on offense it is throwing the ball over the top. Cincinnati should be able to move the ball well with Bionic Ben Mauk, I just don’t think UC scores enough to win.

I say: West Virginia 31 – Cincinnati 24

Kentucky at Georgia
Right now, few teams are playing better than the Georgia Bulldogs. They are doing pretty much everything right. They are playing physical football with the running of Knowshon Moreno, hitting big pass plays with Matthew Stafford and the defense that was such an unknown coming into this season has been phenomenal as of late completely dominating Auburn and limiting the Tebow led Gators to one of their worst performances of the year. Kentucky has gotten back into the top 25 in a very sneaky way, by beating Vanderbilt after losing three of 4 in the stretch of a month. The question is whether or not Kentucky is as good as they were to start the season. I say no, the thing that still sticks in my mind is losing to South Carolina, Mississippi State and Florida, and looking very bad in the process, not the once in a lifetime win over LSU. Kentucky is not good against the run, and will be powerless to stop the Moreno, and UGA will put 40+ on the board again. Andre Woodson will put up yards and points on that secondary, just not enough of them.

I say: Georgia 41 – Kentucky 34

Boston College at Clemson
The image of two teams going on completely divergent paths right now. Clemson is embarking on their typical November trip to save Tommy Bowden’s job, and I must admit that it is going quite swimmingly for them. I really do like this team and the way that they are playing right now. The defense has been phenomenal all year long, who would have thought the defensive line of the Tigers would be almost as well as it did last year without the presence of Gaines Adams? Certainly not me. Clemson is on the up and up, Boston College, on the other hand, is falling from their lofty perch of just three weeks ago, falling hard. Those four minutes of exquisite play against Virginia Tech by Matt Ryan, and his sturdily average group of WR’s have been forgotten. Whipped away by two horrible performances by the defense in general, and the running backs in particular. You know you are in trouble when your defense gives up 450 yards plus in consecutive weeks against throughly average offenses. Clemson on the other hand is not average, far from it they are very balanced and very explosive. Another case where a truly stellar QB won’t be able to overcome his average peers.

I say: Clemson 38 – Boston College 28

Bonus Coverage
Another game to keep an eye on is Iowa State at Kansas. Seriously. Iowa State has been playing much, much better since getting throttled by Texas. They limited Oklahoma to their lowest non Colorado offensive output, and they put the breaks on the Missouri offense better than anyone else has this year, acctually outgaining them. The defense has continued to make plays for them in wins over Colorado and Kansas State. I am not calling for the upset, but it is a game to keep an eye on.

Sunday Musings: November 10th

Ohio State
Just as I was starting to believe in this Ohio State team, what do they do? They go out there and choke down a sure fire chance at a national championship. What is most shocking to me is the way in which Illinois won the game. All of the touchdowns came on the arm of Juice Williams, but the game was won with the legs of Juice Williams and his backfield mate Rashard Mendenhall, and to a lesser extent Daniel Dufrene, while he certainly had the most yardage, his stats were padded by an 80 yard run. Illinois ran they absolute, most basic plays, zone reads, sprint options, QB powers, really basic single wing stuff and the Buckeye defense couldn’t do a thing about it. The final drive for the Illini was awfully impressive, they only gained 42 yards on that drive but they ate up 8 minutes of clock. Ron Zook channeled his inner Les Miles, going for it on 4th and inches, on his own 33. This was one of those rare games where Jim Tressell was absolutely powerless to manufacture an answer. It happened against Texas in 2005, and against Florida last year, and it happened again last night. Long live the Zooker, the Dick Vermeil of College Football. The BCS is in complete disarray, embrace the chaos.

Connecticut
And so it ends. It was fun while it lasted, but really, it was going to end at some point, and end it did, emphatically so.

UConn, the team that has lived on the good side of the turnover margin all season long, even in their previous loss to Virginia, ended up on the wrong side of the margin yesterday, but that was not half the problem. The biggest problem for the Huskies was that they couldn’t run, and if ever there was a run to win team it is the UConn Huskies. That is how they play, very conservatively and very, very physically. The problem is what happens when another team is more physical? A loss is what happens, the end result of 22 yards rushing for the game, and a second half with a grand total of 46 yards of offense. Cincinnati is still alive for the Big East championship, needing to win out, and for WVU to beat UConn. The Battle Royale for the Big East championship takes place next Saturday at the Nip. Good times, good times.

Georgia
This team continues to impress me, and not just because they looked fucking sick in their Blacks.

I am continually amazed at how well, and how disciplined this team is week in and week out. They do commit penalties, and lots of them, but they don’t turn the ball over, and they don’t make stupid mistakes. Even this week they didn’t play their best game, or anything close to what I still view was their best effort, the thrashing of Florida in the worlds largest outdoor non cocktail party. But they gutted it out with Moreno and Stafford leading the way, and that excessively young and jovial defense absolutely pounding Auburn into submission. Knowshon Moreno is a guy who, at some point in the near future, will not have his greatness questioned, like Glenn Dorsey and Darren McFadden now. Everyone will just know how good he is. Get it, know. As it stands right now UGA is being set up for a BCS party like LSU was last year. They do not control their own destiny for the SEC East birth, much like LSU last year, but they do control their own destiny for a BCS bowl. Meaning they win out and they get a BCS bowl, if they get in to the SEC Title game there is a distinct possibility that their BCS bid gets flushed down the toilet ala Arkansas, circa 2006. So Georgia fans, which do you want the SEC East division title, or 17 million dollars? Decisions, decisions.

Michigan
I know that Henne and Hart were hurt for this game, and I know that you had a freshman QB calling the shots. But how does an offense this powerful get shut down that completely by a defense that can best be described as selectively permeable, like the cells in your body. 30 percent of Michigan’s production came on one play, a 97 yard slant. But the thing that is most alarming is that Michigan couldn’t run the ball, with anyone back there. Which is something that Michigan should just be able to do behind that offensive line, but they couldn’t. UNLV ran for more yards against Wisconsin than Michigan did. The question to be asked is whether or not this is a one game apparition, or is it further proof that Michigan is the throughly average team with the famous name that it was at the start of the season. I tend to favor the former over the later, because we have plenty of conclusive evidence out there that a Michigan team without Henne and Hart is not the same as one with Henne and Hart.

Kansas
Do the Jayhawks deserve a national title spot if they win out? I say yes, but I will follow that statement up with another, they deserve a spot, but that game won’t be pretty. They do not have the talent that the other teams in the discussion have, but they play at such a high level that they can play with anyone, and they can, in theory, beat anyone. The thing is that Kansas is maxed out right now, they can not possibly play any better than they are right now, and they have been doing that from the start of the season, their ability to maintain this level of play is rather astounding. But, in a one game scenario, I wouldn’t take them against anyone else in the top 10, simply because other teams capabilities are far superior to that of Kansas. That is not to say that they couldn’t win, but playing the odds I would bet on Oregon or LSU getting up, and playing at a level that Kansas couldn’t match.

Anarchy!!!

Run! Scurry! Flee!

Nothing makes sense, the sport is in an unbelievable state of panic. Good day to you, I have some drinking to do.

Ted Ginn Jr.

Chances are that win or lose Ginn is going to take his game to the next level. He is projected by alot of different sources as being a first round pick. How they come to that conclusion is beyond me. He is not the best WR in his own class by any margin, personally I rank Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Jarrett and Robert Mecham over him. Not to mention guys like Dwayne Bowe and Steve Smith, maybe even Jeff Semardzija over Ginn. All of those guys have done more on the field and have performed at a high level more consistently than Ginn Jr. I never drank the Ginn Cool-Aid, and frankly I am not sure why anyone would. Ginn does do very well and they are run fast and run fast. He lacks polish on the finer aspects of playing receiver. Things like getting off the jam at the line of scrimmage, reading zone coverages, route running, and catching the Football consistently. There is also that little issue of Ginn fearing contact. Ginn will stick in the NFL but I don’t think that he will ever be a star. At OSU Ginn induced fear in every defensive coordinator because of his speed. Ginn will not cause anyone to stay up late at night in the NFL. He has lived off of the fear and hype that was generated because of his stellar freshman year. Johnson and Jarrett have both made tremendous strides in every phase of the position while Ginn just continues to run faster than every one. He can’t do that in the NFL, not consistently.