Games of National Relevence, November 17th

Ohio State at Michigan
I said early in the week that Michigan was going to win this game, and I am sticking by that prediction now. Ohio State did show cracks in their run defense last week, and they have shown cracks in their pass defense against Purdue, Minnesota and Wisconsin. The thing that separates last weeks game from the other three, is that Illinois was able pass the ball in addition to being able to run it. Their four touchdowns all came on the iffy arm of the Juice. Against Michigan, OSU is going to be going against a far more competent quarterback, at least in theory, with the added threat of a proven ground game. That statement relies heavily upon the assumed health of Mike Hart and Chad Henne, if Hart is out the offense will struggle, with or without Henne in there. I am betting on Hart playing no matter what, and I am better on him having a good game. I don’t think he is going to rip it up in Biakabutuka like fashion, but matching his performance from last year should be a given. The bottom line for the Buckeyes, don’t put the game in the hands Boeckman, it is not that he can’t win the game for you, because he can, but he can lose it just as easily with his penchant for throwing interceptions in bunches.

I say: Michigan 27 – Ohio State 24

West Virginia at Cincinnati
This is the toughest game left on the schedule for West Virginia. Going on the road, in prime time, facing a team who views this as the biggest game in the history of the program. That scenario did not work out so well last time for West Virginia.

There are a lot of similarities between the defenses of South Florida and Cincinnati. Stellar pair of NFL caliber CB’s, deep and talented defensive lines, and good solid and consistent play from the linebackers. There is a crucial difference though when it comes to the prior history with the Mountaineers. South Florida played them very well in both 2005 and 2006. Cincinnati, not so much (2005 and 2006). Cincinnati should keep this game very close. The great weakness of UC’s defense is the pass defense. The secondary is boom or bust, they make plays in the form of interceptions or they get toasted. They struggle with offenses that push the ball deep with consistency. If there is one thing WVU does not do well on offense it is throwing the ball over the top. Cincinnati should be able to move the ball well with Bionic Ben Mauk, I just don’t think UC scores enough to win.

I say: West Virginia 31 – Cincinnati 24

Kentucky at Georgia
Right now, few teams are playing better than the Georgia Bulldogs. They are doing pretty much everything right. They are playing physical football with the running of Knowshon Moreno, hitting big pass plays with Matthew Stafford and the defense that was such an unknown coming into this season has been phenomenal as of late completely dominating Auburn and limiting the Tebow led Gators to one of their worst performances of the year. Kentucky has gotten back into the top 25 in a very sneaky way, by beating Vanderbilt after losing three of 4 in the stretch of a month. The question is whether or not Kentucky is as good as they were to start the season. I say no, the thing that still sticks in my mind is losing to South Carolina, Mississippi State and Florida, and looking very bad in the process, not the once in a lifetime win over LSU. Kentucky is not good against the run, and will be powerless to stop the Moreno, and UGA will put 40+ on the board again. Andre Woodson will put up yards and points on that secondary, just not enough of them.

I say: Georgia 41 – Kentucky 34

Boston College at Clemson
The image of two teams going on completely divergent paths right now. Clemson is embarking on their typical November trip to save Tommy Bowden’s job, and I must admit that it is going quite swimmingly for them. I really do like this team and the way that they are playing right now. The defense has been phenomenal all year long, who would have thought the defensive line of the Tigers would be almost as well as it did last year without the presence of Gaines Adams? Certainly not me. Clemson is on the up and up, Boston College, on the other hand, is falling from their lofty perch of just three weeks ago, falling hard. Those four minutes of exquisite play against Virginia Tech by Matt Ryan, and his sturdily average group of WR’s have been forgotten. Whipped away by two horrible performances by the defense in general, and the running backs in particular. You know you are in trouble when your defense gives up 450 yards plus in consecutive weeks against throughly average offenses. Clemson on the other hand is not average, far from it they are very balanced and very explosive. Another case where a truly stellar QB won’t be able to overcome his average peers.

I say: Clemson 38 – Boston College 28

Bonus Coverage
Another game to keep an eye on is Iowa State at Kansas. Seriously. Iowa State has been playing much, much better since getting throttled by Texas. They limited Oklahoma to their lowest non Colorado offensive output, and they put the breaks on the Missouri offense better than anyone else has this year, acctually outgaining them. The defense has continued to make plays for them in wins over Colorado and Kansas State. I am not calling for the upset, but it is a game to keep an eye on.

Sunday Musings: November 10th

Ohio State
Just as I was starting to believe in this Ohio State team, what do they do? They go out there and choke down a sure fire chance at a national championship. What is most shocking to me is the way in which Illinois won the game. All of the touchdowns came on the arm of Juice Williams, but the game was won with the legs of Juice Williams and his backfield mate Rashard Mendenhall, and to a lesser extent Daniel Dufrene, while he certainly had the most yardage, his stats were padded by an 80 yard run. Illinois ran they absolute, most basic plays, zone reads, sprint options, QB powers, really basic single wing stuff and the Buckeye defense couldn’t do a thing about it. The final drive for the Illini was awfully impressive, they only gained 42 yards on that drive but they ate up 8 minutes of clock. Ron Zook channeled his inner Les Miles, going for it on 4th and inches, on his own 33. This was one of those rare games where Jim Tressell was absolutely powerless to manufacture an answer. It happened against Texas in 2005, and against Florida last year, and it happened again last night. Long live the Zooker, the Dick Vermeil of College Football. The BCS is in complete disarray, embrace the chaos.

Connecticut
And so it ends. It was fun while it lasted, but really, it was going to end at some point, and end it did, emphatically so.

UConn, the team that has lived on the good side of the turnover margin all season long, even in their previous loss to Virginia, ended up on the wrong side of the margin yesterday, but that was not half the problem. The biggest problem for the Huskies was that they couldn’t run, and if ever there was a run to win team it is the UConn Huskies. That is how they play, very conservatively and very, very physically. The problem is what happens when another team is more physical? A loss is what happens, the end result of 22 yards rushing for the game, and a second half with a grand total of 46 yards of offense. Cincinnati is still alive for the Big East championship, needing to win out, and for WVU to beat UConn. The Battle Royale for the Big East championship takes place next Saturday at the Nip. Good times, good times.

Georgia
This team continues to impress me, and not just because they looked fucking sick in their Blacks.

I am continually amazed at how well, and how disciplined this team is week in and week out. They do commit penalties, and lots of them, but they don’t turn the ball over, and they don’t make stupid mistakes. Even this week they didn’t play their best game, or anything close to what I still view was their best effort, the thrashing of Florida in the worlds largest outdoor non cocktail party. But they gutted it out with Moreno and Stafford leading the way, and that excessively young and jovial defense absolutely pounding Auburn into submission. Knowshon Moreno is a guy who, at some point in the near future, will not have his greatness questioned, like Glenn Dorsey and Darren McFadden now. Everyone will just know how good he is. Get it, know. As it stands right now UGA is being set up for a BCS party like LSU was last year. They do not control their own destiny for the SEC East birth, much like LSU last year, but they do control their own destiny for a BCS bowl. Meaning they win out and they get a BCS bowl, if they get in to the SEC Title game there is a distinct possibility that their BCS bid gets flushed down the toilet ala Arkansas, circa 2006. So Georgia fans, which do you want the SEC East division title, or 17 million dollars? Decisions, decisions.

Michigan
I know that Henne and Hart were hurt for this game, and I know that you had a freshman QB calling the shots. But how does an offense this powerful get shut down that completely by a defense that can best be described as selectively permeable, like the cells in your body. 30 percent of Michigan’s production came on one play, a 97 yard slant. But the thing that is most alarming is that Michigan couldn’t run the ball, with anyone back there. Which is something that Michigan should just be able to do behind that offensive line, but they couldn’t. UNLV ran for more yards against Wisconsin than Michigan did. The question to be asked is whether or not this is a one game apparition, or is it further proof that Michigan is the throughly average team with the famous name that it was at the start of the season. I tend to favor the former over the later, because we have plenty of conclusive evidence out there that a Michigan team without Henne and Hart is not the same as one with Henne and Hart.

Kansas
Do the Jayhawks deserve a national title spot if they win out? I say yes, but I will follow that statement up with another, they deserve a spot, but that game won’t be pretty. They do not have the talent that the other teams in the discussion have, but they play at such a high level that they can play with anyone, and they can, in theory, beat anyone. The thing is that Kansas is maxed out right now, they can not possibly play any better than they are right now, and they have been doing that from the start of the season, their ability to maintain this level of play is rather astounding. But, in a one game scenario, I wouldn’t take them against anyone else in the top 10, simply because other teams capabilities are far superior to that of Kansas. That is not to say that they couldn’t win, but playing the odds I would bet on Oregon or LSU getting up, and playing at a level that Kansas couldn’t match.

Time to be a Homer, Just a Little Bit Though

If you have read through the Point of View page you wil know that I am a fan of the Cincinnati Bearcats, if you didn’t now you know. I have been fighting the urge to voice my opinion on Brian Kelly and his particular brand of calculated PR but I can fight it no longer because he is doing something that I never thought was possible in the least. He is making UC Football a story for the local media. While that might not sound like a big deal to many people out there, if you hail from an area where your school is always in a place of preeminence, it is a big deal here in Cincinnati.

To understand this you have to understand the way things work here in Cincinnati. Bearcats Football has been a second class citizen in this city for a very long time. It is a perception that has existed and persisted for years. But I think that it is starting to change, and the changing point of the that was last years demolition of Rutgers, courtesy of the implosion of Mike Teel. Some UC fans saw that as the turning point for the program. I don’t know about all that, but it did make UC Football worthy of talk for just a little bit which is a welcome change from the past when it wasn’t worthy of a mention by the local media. Then Mark Dantonio bolted, Brian Kelly was hired, he started doing what he does best, talking. Slowly but surely a buzz was being built up around him and this program. It wasn’t anything of palpable excitment, more of an overt curiosity because he was saying things that the locals had never heard in conjunction with UC Football, words like “championship,” “BCS,” and “offense.” People just wanted to know what was going on more than everything. Season ticket sales were higher than they have ever been, and this after the adminstration finally seperated Football and Basketball, and allowed each to stand on their own.

The program was starting to gain traction after spinning its wheels for decades. It wasn’t much relative to other programs, I know this, I am more aware of it than most. But gaining any sort of momentum was key. And UC Football was doing just that, and Brian Kelly was becoming to face of the program, a role he eagerly accepted. Then, just about a month ago at the Big East media days, Brian Kelly put down the gauntlet to the Cincinnati media.

“I am still going to coach the team and we are still going to compete for a Big East title. But it is sad for the fans of Cincinnati to not have a legitimate, credible local media outlet. Our fans would be better served going to Rivals, Sporting News, or even the Boston Globe because they are credible sources who care enough about their product to be here.”

He called out the Cincinnati media for their apathetic at best coverage of the Bearcats Football team. This sent the Queen City Media into a frenzy of anger. More about him correctly calling them out than anything else. He challanged the media order and they didn’t like it at all. For about a week, the talk radio shows stopped their exclusive coverage of the bottom feeding Reds for a week and started talking about UC Football for a little bit. Most of the people were talking exclusivly about how much of a nut job Brian Kelly was for thinking that UC could ever help to compete for a BCS bowl bid. They brought out the old standby for the Cincinnati media, “put 35,000 in the seats at Nippert and we will cover you.” Once again they tried to trivialize Brian Kelly and his stance that UC Football deserved media coverage. However they were talking about him which was the goal in the first place. But the problem with trying to trivialize UC Football is that the fan base of UC football is growing, and was none too happy with the media. Suddenly the media could no longer dictate how much coverage UC deserved.

Now as I sit here, UC is getting more coverage than they have ever had before. And that can be traced directly to Brian Kelly’s shot across the bow. I think that what Brian Kelly said in July is directly responsible for the increased coverage right now. I am not sure if that was his initial plan, but I bet he knew that this could have been a result. UC has a coach who is the definition of media savy, has a great personality and entertaining offensive system. I think that UC has scored the trifecta with Brian Kelly. Brian Kelly is a keeper already, and he has only coached one game.

I Just Don’t Get It

At risk of sounding like a biased and angry fan I will embark upon this post. Today I was meandering through my usual daily links when I came across this gem of reporting. http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=2858779 The article started out well enough, as I was reading through it and agreeing with it for the most part. Then came Starkey’s predicted standings for next season. Somehow he managed to acknowledge the problems at hand for Pitt and Syracuse. Stating that “The conference could use a revival from old-school members Pitt and Syracuse, but this likely isn’t the year. Syracuse plays a brutal early schedule, and Pitt will be too inexperienced.” Excellent statement and very true to boot. His bit about UC reads as follows, “Cincinnati will attempt to recapture last year’s magic (4-3 in the conference) under new coach Brian Kelly and his wide-open offense The hope is that Wake Forest transfer Ben Mauk will upgrade the quarterback play while the defense continues to shine despite the loss of defensive-minded head coach Mark Dantonio.” Again a good and true statement that most other followers of UC would agree with. But one particular section later in the article is beyond my comprehension, his predicted standings.

1. Louisville
2. Rutgers
3. West Virginia
4. South Florida
5. Pittsburgh
6. Syracuse
7. Cincinnati
8. Connecticut

I am still dumbfounded by this, Pitt has lost Tyler Palko, Darrell Revis and HB Blades from a team that absolutely imploded down the stretch and finished a healthy 7th in the conference standings and now, losing three heart and soul type players, they are going to somehow improve two spots in the standings? It defies comprehension. Sure Dave Wanstead has brought in a lot of talent in the last two classes, but Pitt has done nothing but take steps back since going to the Fiesta Bowl after the 2004 season. There is little reason to think that they will take a step forward this year, make no mistake about it finishing fifth would be a step forward. Its a step that is not going happen this year.

Syracuse has won 1 conference game in the Big East’s current format, they need to replace last years starting QB. Granted Perry Patterson did not set the world on fire, but he was an experienced signal caller at the very least. One of last seasons most productive LB’s, Kelvin Smith, is gone. It probably comes as news to Joe Starkey that Delone Carter, the Orange’s leading rusher last season, is done for the year sourtesy of a dislocated hip and it will be up to Curtis Brinkley to carry the load. This team ranked in the bottom ten nationaly of almost every team statistical category. What makes anyone think this team will finish anywhere but the bottom of the barrel?

Cincinnati will not win the Big East this year, they probably won’t come very close either. However this is a better team than 7th in the Big East. Pitt might have more talent but they haven’t proven anything and have one of the worst coaching staffs in the conference and no production aside from Derrik Kinder and LeRod Stephens-Howling. Syracuse is 1 for 13 in the Big East under Greg Robinson and the signs of improvement are not readily available, though Jameel McClain is a very nice player and deserves some sort of notice for his abilities. The Bearcats do have a new coach and the changeover could present some problems, but the defense is good enough to keep UC in every game, in much the same way it did last year, and maybe win one or two of them, again in much the same way they did last year. Thats what can happen when a unit returns 9 starters, it can carry a team. Bottom Line, I’m pretty convinced that Joe Starkey looked a lot like the guy who just delivered my Pizza when he was writing this horrid excuse for a journalistic exercise, stoned out of his mind!

Bearcats Football Takes a Positive Step

This week the University of Cincinnati Athletic Department took a step in the right direction for their Football program, which is on the brink of becoming the flag ship of UC Athletics. For most of the history of UC athletics the Basketball program has ruled the roost. Going back to the late 50′s when Oscar Robertson thrilled packed houses at the Armory Fieldhouse and brought Bearcat Basketball to the attention of the national audience to the back to back National Championship teams of 61 and 62. 30 years removed but fresh in the minds of all Tri-State residents are the days of Bob Huggins. Huggy Bear lead UC back to national prominence in the 90′s with his brand of tough nosed physical Basketball. UC has always been recognized as a Basketball school and rightfully so given the outstanding winning percentage and tradition that has been evident at this university. But the success of Bearcat Basketball unwittingly demoted every other sport to second class status, especially the Football program. For decades the Athletic department required anyone who wanted Basketball season tickets to also buy Football Season tickets. The arrangement made some sense during the C-USA days when the Basketball program was rocking and rolling before packed houses in the Fifth Third Arena and the demand was sky high. But in reality it came at the expense of the Football program. By making Football tickets requirements for Basketball tickets UC essentially branded the Football program a step below the Basketball program and not as important. However when Huggins was dismissed and the Basketball program took a turn for the worse that could not be said for the Football program. UC Football has not been bad over the last decade but it has been fairly average. There have been some good stretches and bowl appearances. That is changing, UC had one of the best seasons in the nation that no one talked about this past year. But it has not done anything to wrest the minds of Tri-State residents away from the Buckeyes 100 miles north on I-71. There are any number of reasons for this, blaming the local media seems to be the popular one among true Bearcat Football fans and there is some merit in that approach. Simply looking at the lack of coverage of the UC Rutgers game shows that. During the week there was not a mention of the impending visit of the Scarlet Knights until the day before the game and after the game and the biggest upset in school history the story was relegated behind the OSU Michigan game, which was somewhat understandable. But there really one thing to blame and that is the apathetic attitude to UC Football from of the majority of sports fans in this city. If you polled 100 Cincinnati residents as to what their favorite College Football program is 75 would tell you Ohio State and the majority of the others would tell you Notre Dame or Michigan. I would be shocked if 10 would say UC. Understanding that makes the pairing of Football tickets with Basketball tickets in the past make some sense. In the minds of most Tri-State residents UC Football is a second class citizen. This sense of apathy towards this program is part of the reason why Mark Dantonio left. UC Football might not have the hearts and minds of Cincinnati residents but it is in a far better position to secede in the Big East than the Basketball program is. Not surprisingly this fact goes unnoticed to the majority of Cincinnati residents. That fact has not gone unnoticed by Mike Thomas and the Athletic Department staff who bestowed equal billing on Bearcat Football from on high, well the eighth floor of the Linder Center, for the first time in over a decade. The current of position of UC Football begs comparison with a program that has seen a meteoric rise in popularity and respect. They too had just opened new facilities geared towards making the institution a legitimate Football program. They too had long been considered a hoops school in a city where High School Basketball and Football ruled supreme. Long had this program had its home territory raided by more prestigious and history rich programs. They were also looked down upon as the inferior little brother to a school that bore the name of the state. This program was long held as an inferior to its more successful basketball program. This program also had a signature victory against a highly ranked national opponent at home in front of a national television audience. Then, in the middle of their Ascension to the top the architect of the program bolted the university that had given him national notoriety for an institution nestled on the banks of the Red Cedar in East Lansing. Then, when everyone thought the program would crumble with the loss of the architect the administration went out on a limb and hired a brash young offensive minded coach who would continue the raise to prominence in fact this coach quickened the pace. If you haven’t figured it out yet the program that I refer to is Louisville. There may not be a guarantee of similar success but there is no reason that UC can not enjoy a level of success similar to our rivals 100 miles to the south. The situations are eerily similar, right now UC sits in the same position that Louisville was in just 5 or 6 years ago. The decision of the Athletic Department to recognize the ability of UC Football to stand on its own is a risk, a calculated risk true, but a risk none the less. With the hire of Brian Kelly and his fan friendly offensive show appeals more to the casual fan. Personally I loved the way the Bearcats played under Mark Dantonio with the conservative play calling of Don Treadwell and the fast and furious defense of Pat Narduzzi. It did not make for fan friendly Football but it did keep UC in games, UC won a fair share of those games. Kelly’s attack will be wide open and high octane for sure. The risk is that Kelly could fail in the long run which makes the timing of this decision perfect. The defense will return 8 starters and will be among the best in the conference, if not the nation. While the offense has the type of players Kelly craves for his offensive system. Big, tall, physical athletes like Dominic Goodman and Earnest Jackson in the slot, speed merchants like Jared Martin and Derick Stewart to stretch the defense vertically from the perimeter, not to mention a veteran offensive line that returns 3 starters and a stable of backs to choose from. This team is set up to win right now, even if the offense doesn’t click right away the defense will be able to win almost every game. The risk of a bad season in 2007, while present, is minimal. Kelly is in what I like to refer to as a “Tim Tebow.” Urban Meyer only inserted Tebow in situations where the chance of failure was minuscule. Kelly is in a similar situation, everything is in place for this program to take off the facilities, the team a supportive administration Alot of pundits around the nation recognize that fact, College Football News chief among them. Not surprisingly no one in the Tri-State is seeing this http://http://rodeo.cincinnati.com/artchat/comments.aspx?aID=703060344 That will change in time, when UC starts seeing more success UC Football fans will come from the depths in much the same way Bengals fans have materialized from nothing in the past five years. UC should be applauded for this decision and I feel that it will pay off in a big way, just look at our rivals to the south.